CIA Psychology Of Intelligence Analysis.pdf

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1、HistoryStaffCenterfortheStudyofIntelligenceCentralIntelligenceAgency1999PsychologyofIntelligenceAnalysisRichardsJ.Heuer,Jr.TableofContents●Author'sPreface●ForewordbyDouglasMacEachin●IntroductionbyJackDavis●PARTI--OURMENTALMACHINERY●Chapter1:ThinkingAboutThinking●Chapter2:Perception:WhyC

2、an'tWeSeeWhatIsTheretoBeSeen?●Chapter3:Memory:HowDoWeRememberWhatWeKnow?●PARTII--TOOLSFORTHINKING●Chapter4:StrategiesforAnalyticalJudgment:TranscendingtheLimitsofIncompleteInformation●Chapter5:DoYouReallyNeedMoreInformation?●Chapter6:KeepinganOpenMind●Chapter7:StructuringAnalyticalProbl

3、ems●Chapter8:AnalysisofCompetingHypotheses●PARTIII--COGNITIVEBIASES●Chapter9:WhatAreCognitiveBiases?●Chapter10:BiasesinEvaluationofEvidence●Chapter11:BiasesinPerceptionofCauseandEffect●Chapter12:BiasesinEstimatingProbabilities●Chapter13:HindsightBiasesinEvaluationofIntelligenceReporting

4、●PARTIV--CONCLUSIONS●Chapter14:ImprovingIntelligenceAnalysisPublicationsPage

5、CSIHomepageCenterfortheStudyofIntelligenceCentralIntelligenceAgency1999PsychologyofIntelligenceAnalysisAuthor'sPrefaceThisvolumepullstogetherandrepublishes,withsomeediting,updating,andadditions,articleswrittend

6、uring1978-86forinternalusewithintheCIADirectorateofIntelligence.FourofthearticlesalsoappearedintheIntelligenceCommunityjournalStudiesinIntelligenceduringthattimeframe.Theinformationisrelativelytimelessandstillrelevanttothenever-endingquestforbetteranalysis.Thearticlesarebasedonreviewing

7、cognitivepsychologyliteratureconcerninghowpeopleprocessinformationtomakejudgmentsonincompleteandambiguousinformation.Iselectedtheexperimentsandfindingsthatseemmostrelevanttointelligenceanalysisandmostinneedofcommunicationtointelligenceanalysts.Ithentranslatedthetechnicalreportsintolangu

8、agethatintelligenceanalystscanunderstandandinterpretedtherelevanceofthesefindingstotheproblemsintelligenceanalystsface.Theresultisacompromisethatmaynotbewhollysatisfactorytoeitherresearchpsychologistsorintelligenceanalysts.Cognitivepsychologistsanddecisionanalystsmaycomplainofo