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1、渐飞研究报告-http://bg.panlv.netInvestmentFocusDecember2,2011RealEstateRESEARCHPeterHongweiBAISFCCERef:AMB141DarknessBeforeDawn;PolicytoTurnbaihw@cicc.com.cnEricYuZHANGzhangyu3@cicc.com.cn2012PropertySectorInvestmentStrategyShaoyanLIUliusy3@cicc.com.cnActionThephysicalmarketisapproa
2、chingitsworstperiod,likelyin2Q12,butpropertypricesareunlikelytoexperiencedeepcorrectionsgivenasoundeconomicsituationandmoneysupply.Policyisexpectedtoloosenbymid-2012,helpingtheindustrybottomout.Weexpectdivergencestowidenfordifferentcities,regions,propertytypes,aswellascompanie
3、s.LargeplayerswithprojectsinTier-1/-2citiesandincentralandwesternregionswilloutperformpeers;andcommercialpropertycompanieswillalsobenefitfromrisingrentsandstructuraldivergence.ReasoningIndustryunlikelytosufferdeepcorrections.Newhomemarkettocontinuetodeteriorateuntilinventorype
4、aksin2Qnextyear,butwethinkthedownsideriskislimited,thephysicalmarketwillgetsupportfromstilldecentGDPgrowth,moderateloangrowthandreversingpolicies.Webelievetheboominghomemarketwillcontinueafteramedium-termhealthycorrection.Policyeasinglikelyhappenin1H12,alongwithweakeningofthes
5、ector,thecentralgovernmentmightbetacitaboutlocalrelaxation.Theroadmapforpolicylooseningis:crediteasing→RRRcut→Fine-tuningfromlocalgovernments→IRcut→HPRcanceled.Structuraldivergencestowidenin2012.Weareoptimisticontradingvolumepickingupintier-1/-2cities,whiletier-3/-4citiesmayfa
6、cepressurefromdecliningvolume.Central/westernregionsandcommercialpropertiesarelikelytooutperformthemarket.Fundamentalsanalysisonnewhomemarket.Withdrivingfactorssuchashomeupgradedemand,financingsupport,rapidgrowthinboththeurbanizationrateandmacroeconomy,thelong-termtrendforChin
7、a'spropertymarketinthenext10yearsisstillupward.Fastexpansion,highmoneysupplyandhouseholdsavingsresultedintherapidgrowthofpropertyprices,butinternationalcomparisonshowsthatthevalueofChina’shousingstockisstillatareasonablelevel.Bubbleswillshrink,howevertheyarehardtoburst,mainlyt
8、hankstothelowfinancingleverage.ValuationandrecommendationAslo
