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1、原文：（题目开始至P32倒数第五行）ASEARCHFORMULTIPLEEQUILIBRIAINURBANINDUSTRIALSTRUCTUREABSTRACTTheoriesfeaturingmultipleequilibriaarewidespreadacrosseconomics.Yetlittleempiricalworkhasaskedifmultipleequilibriaarefeaturesofrealeconomies.WeexaminethisinthecontextoftheAlliedbombingofJap
2、anesecitiesandindustriesinWorldWarII.Wedevelopanewempiricaltestformultipleequilibriaandapplyittodatafor114Japanesecitiesineightmanufacturingindustries.Thedataprovidenosupportfortheexistenceofmultipleequilibria.Intheaftermathevenofimmenseshocks,acitytypicallyrecoversnot
3、onlyitspopulationanditsshareofaggregatemanufacturing,buteventheindustriesithadbefore.1.MULTIPLEEQUILIBRIAINTHEORYANDDATATheconceptofmultipleequilibriaisahallmarkofmoderneconomics,onewhoseinfluencecrossesbroadswathesoftheprofession.Inmacroeconomics,itisofferedasanunderp
4、inningforthebusinesscycle(CooperandJohn,1988).Indevelopmenteconomicsitrationalizesatheoryofthe“bigpush”(Murphy，Shleifer,andVishny,1988).Inurbanandregionaleconomics,itprovidesafoundationforunderstandingvariationinthedensityofeconomicactivityacrosscitiesandregions(Krugma
5、n,1991).Inthefieldofinternationaleconomics,ithasevenbeenofferedasacandidateexplanationforthedivisionoftheglobaleconomyintoanindustrialNorthandanonindustrialSouth,aswellasthepossiblefuturecollapseofsuchaworldregime(KrugmanandVenables,1995).Thetheoreticalliteraturehasnow
6、firmlyestablishedtheanalyticfoundationsfortheexistenceofmultipleequilibria.However,theoryhasfaroutpacedempirics.Themostimportantempiricalquestionarisingfromthisintellectualcurrenthasalmostnotbeentouched:AremultipleequilibriaasalientfeatureofrealeconomiesfiThisisinheren
7、tlyadifficultquestion.Atanymomentintime,oneobservesonlytheactualequilibrium,notalternativeequilibriathatexistonlypotentially.Iftheresearcherobservesachangeovertime,itisdifficulttoknowifthischangereflectsashiftbetweenequilibriaduetotemporaryshocksorachangeinfundamentals
8、thatareperhapsnotyetwellunderstoodbytheresearcher.Ifacrosssectionrevealsheterogeneitythatseemshardtoexplainbytheobser
