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1、第35卷第6期水利水电科技进展2015年11月Vol.35No.6AdvancesinScienceandTechnologyofWaterResourcesNov.2015DOI:10.3880/j.issn.10067647.2015.06.002我国水利发展历程演变及评价123吴摇丹,王士东,马摇超(1.北方工业大学经济管理学院,北京摇100144;2.牛津大学统计系,牛津摇OX13TG;3.水利部发展研究中心,北京摇100038)摘要:在系统分析社会经济发展与水利发展之间的互动机理、探讨水利发展的历
2、程演变及其特征表现的基础上,从水资源利用、水环境保护、水生态修复以及水灾害防治4个维度,系统设计了水利发展进程评价指标体系,评估了我国水利发展目标综合实现程度,全面剖析了我国水利发展进程中存在的主要问题。结果表明,2010年水利发展目标综合实现程度为45%,处于自然水生态赤字开始缩小期;预计水利发展目标综合实现程度在2015年末提高到63%,2030年提高到92%,实现局部自然水生态盈余;2050年我国将进入全面自然水生态盈余期,实现人水和谐,全面建成水利现代化。关键词:水利发展历程;水资源;水环境;水生态
3、;水灾害;评价指标;评价体系中图分类号:TV213郾9摇摇摇文献标志码:A摇摇摇文章编号:10067647(2015)0600070612EvolutionandevaluationforwaterconservancydevelopmentprocessinChina//WUDan,WANGShidong,MA3Chao(1.SchoolofEconomicsandManagement,NorthChinaUniversityofTechnology,Beijing100144,China;2.Depar
4、tmentofStatistics,UniversityofOxford,OxfordOX13TG,UnitedKingdom;3.DevelopmentResearchCentreoftheMinistryofWaterResources,Beijing100038,China)Abstract:Basedonsystematicanalysisofthemechanismsofinteractionbetweensocioeconomicdevelopmentandwaterconservancydev
5、elopment,aswellasontheevolutionandcharacteristicsofwaterconservancydevelopment,anevaluationindexsystemforwaterconservancydevelopmentwasdesignedsystematicallyfromfourperspectives,includingwaterresourcesutilization,waterenvironmentprotection,waterecologicalr
6、estoration,andwaterdisasterprevention.Theintegratedimplementationdegreeofwaterconservancydevelopment爷sobjectivesinChinaisevaluated,andthemainexistingproblemsduringthewaterconservancydevelopmentprocessareinvestigatedcomprehensively.Theresultsshowthatthecomp
7、rehensiveimplementationdegreeofwaterconservancydevelopment爷sobjectiveswas45%in2010,indicatingthatthenaturalwaterecologicaldeficithasbegunshrink;thattheforecastedcomprehensiveimplementationdegreesare63%for2015and92%for2030,indicatingthatthelocalnaturalwater
8、ecologicalremainderwillhavebeguntoappear;andthattheoverallnaturalwaterecologicalremainderwillberealizedin2050,ahuman鄄waterbalancewillbeachieved,andwaterconservancymodernizationwillberealized.Keywords:watercon