基于copula-alm模型的中国农业保险共保体运营效果模拟分析

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1、万方数据AbstractDifferentfromotherrisks，agriculturalriskislarge，infrequent，andpotentiallyhighlycorrelatedacrossgeographicregions，resultinginadifficultproblemonriskmanagement．DuetothelatedevelopmentofagriculturalinsuranceinChina，theinsurancecompanysometimesfailstoagriculturalriskma

2、nagementandlacksofeffectiveriskdispersionmethod．Asanalternativeoptionthatinternallypoolingitsinsurancebusinessacrossanumberofgeographicregionsand／orproductlines，theinsurancecompanymaycontrolriskbypurchasingprivatereinsuranceorgettingassistancefromcatastrophereservesbylocalgove

3、rnment．However,recentourcountryagriculturalriskshavebeenexposedforincreasingreinsurancepremiums，growinglocalgovernmentdebtandimperfectcatastrophedispersedsystem．Inthiscase，theinsurancepool，ariskmanagementmethodtodisperseriskbyrisksharing，becomesthebestsolutionforagriculturalin

4、surancecompanies．Bothdomesticandinternationalexperiencehasverifieditseffectivenessondispersecatastropherisk．Attheendof2014，Chinaagriculturalinsuranceandreinsurancepoolwasestablishedasaninnovativeattempttotheagriculturalinsurancedevelopment．Butitisstilllackoftheoreticalanalysis

5、andquantitativemodelsresearchabouttheoperationandimplementation．Basedontheabovequestions，thispaperiscarriedoutwiththestudyoftheoperationaleffectivenessevaluationofinsurancepool。UsingCopulamodelandassetliabilitymanagementapproachtobuildthemodeofthepoolingandevaluatetheoperation

6、effect，wecomparethedifferentproportionofpremiumtransfereffectsonpoolingoperation．Furthermore，undersamepremiumtransferratio，wecompareself-managedinsurancepoolandcombination(aportfolioapproachtocombineaself-managedinsurancepoolandprivatereinsuranceusingcorrelationoftheLCR)insura

7、ncep001．Throughempiricalresearch，wefoundthatthehigherpremiumtransferratiocanbringhigherprofitwithlessstableoperationcausedbythelargerisk．Butconversely,underlowerpremiumtransferratio，althoughitsprofitmaybenotbeoutstanding，butitisrelativelymorestableonthediversificationandcontin

8、uingoperations．Comparedwithself-managedinsurancepool，combinat