2010光伏行业分析报告

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1、EquityResearchAmericasFebruary09,2009TechnologySolarEnergySolarEnergyVishalShahIndustryOverview1.212.526.4378ChinaSolar:SelectiveOpportunitiesvishal.shah1@barcap.comBCI,NewYorkSectorView:New:1-PositiveOld:1-PositiveInvestmentConclusionßChinesesolarsha

2、resmayappearexpensiveon2009estimates,however,screenrelativelyattractiveon4quarterforwardestimatesassuming2H09recovery,inourview.Webelievethefollowingthreeinvestorconcernsarelikelytonegativelyimpactneartermsharepriceperformance:1)Downsidetogrossmargina

3、ssumptions,2)Excesschannelinventory,3)Streetestimatereductions.However,aspolyshortagesease,weexpectselectsharestooutperformthegroup.WeseegreaterdifferentiationbetweenChinesecompaniesthathaveeithertechnology/costadvantageandlowqualityundifferentiatedpl

4、ayers.OurrecommendedpicksincludeYGE(1-OW)andJASO(1-OW).WerateSTPandSOLF3-UW.SummaryßInitiatingCoverage:WeareinitiatingcoverageonYGEwitha1-OWrating;LDKSolar,Renesola,TrinaSolar,andChinaSunergywith2-EWratings;andSolarfunwitha3-UWrating.ßNeartermOutlook:

5、WebelievechannelinventorybuildandbalancesheetrisksarelikelytoremainthetwoprimaryconcernsimpactingallChinesesolarstocksinthenearterm.Inourview,approximately800MWofrawmaterialandfinishedgoodsinventorywasinthechannelasofQ408.Webelieveapproximately300MWof

6、thisinventorywaswithdistributorsinEuropeandtheUSandanotherapproximately500MWofinventorywasonthebalancesheetsofsolarcell/moduleproducers.Duetotightnessincreditmarkets,wecurrentlyexpectsolardemandtodecline40%sequentiallyinQ109afternearly35%sequentialdec

7、lineindemandinQ408.Webelievecell/modulemanufacturersmayneedtocutproductionlevelsby45%inQ109inordertoavoidtheinventorybuildproblem.MostChinesesolarcompaniespurchasedhighcostsiliconinearlyQ408assumingdemandwouldremainstrongandshipmentswouldgrowsequentia

8、lly.WebelieveseveralofthesecompaniesmayhavetowritedownhighcostinventoryasmoduleASPshavedeclinedbymorethan30%sequentially.Ouranalysissuggeststhatthewafermanufacturers-LDKandRenesola-mayhavetowritedownover$100millionworthofinventory,whereascompa