北京大学-公司金融5

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1、Lecture3(2)ValuingStocksThetwomajorsourcesofraisingfundsforcorporationsaredebtandequity.Debtholders’claimsmustbepaidinfullbeforetheclaimsoftheequityholderscanbepaid.Stockholdersreceivedividend,whichistheresidualclaimonthevalueofthefirm.Howcanwedeterminethepriceofastock?1

2、DividendDiscountModel(股利贴现模型)Astockprovidestwokindsofcashflows.First,moststockspaydividendsonaregularbasis.Second,thestockholderreceivesthesalepricewhenshesellsthestock.DivP11Onetimeperiodcase:P=+01+r1+rDiv1isthedividendpaidatdate1andisthesalepriceatP1theendofdate1.isP0t

3、hePVofthecommonstockinvestment.isthediscountrateofthestock.rDivP−P110r=+PP00StockReturn=DividendYield+CapitalGain(股利收益率)(资本利得收益率)Thissaysthatthereturnonstock(i.e.,thestock’sdiscountrate)equalsthesumofthedividendyieldplustherateofcapitalgain.Butwheredoescomefrom?P1DivP22P

4、=+11+r1+rDivDivP122P=++0221+r1(+r)1(+r)DivDivDiv123P=+++...0231+r1(+r)1(+r)∞Divt=∑tt=11(+r)Thusthevalueofafirm’scommonstocktotheinvestorisequaltothepresentvalueofalltheexpectedfuturedividends.(1)ZeroGrowthThedividendpaymentisconstantforever.Div=Div=Div=...=Div123Thevalue

5、ofastockwithaconstantdividendis:DivDivDiv123P=+++...0231+r1(+r)1(+r)Div1=r(2)ConstantGrowth(DividendGrowthModel)Dividendsgrowatrateg.Thevalueofacommonstockwithdividendsgrowingataconstantrategis:2DivDiv1(+g)Div1(+g)111P=+++...0231+r1(+r)1(+r)Div1=r−g(3)DifferentialGrowthT

6、hedividendisexperiencingdifferentgrowthrate.Example1:Supposeastockwhichisexpectedtopayadividendof$2nextyear.Thedividendisprojectedtogrowat5%peryearindefinitely.Ifthediscountrateis15%,whatisthecurrentstockprice?StockpricesensitivitytorequiredreturnStockpricesensitivitytog

7、rowthrate2NPVGOModel2.1GrowthrateandDiscountrate.First,wheredoesgrowthratecomefrom?earningsnextyear=earningsthisyear+increaseinearningsearningsnextyear=earningsthisyear+retainedearningsthisyear×returnonretainedearningsg=retentionratio×returnonretainedearnings1−retentionr

8、atio(plowbackratio)=payoutratioExample2:PagemasterEnterprisesjustreportedearningsof$2million.Itplanstor