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1、a山东科技大学硕士学位论文摘要AbstractCoalmine'sdynamicphenomenaisthephenomenathatthecoalorrockinthehigh-stressstatewhichhaveaccumulatedalargenumberofelasticenergy，suddenlydamage,fallorthrownout，andreleasealotofenergy.Thecoalisthemainenergyofourcountry,coalaccountfo
2、rmorethan70%intheenergystructure.However,coalminedisastersoftenoccur,forexample,inFushun,Beijing,Datong,Zaozhuang,Xinwen,Kailuanandothercoalminesallhaverockburstphenomenon,andtherockbursthavecausedagreatharm.Incoalmines,coalandgasoutburstisevenmorefre
3、quent,accordingtostatistics,there107coalmineshavecoalandgasoutburstdisasterinourcountry,thenumberofcoalandgasoutburstdisasteraccountfor35%inthetotalnumberoftheworld's,thecoalandgasoutbursthavecausedmanycasualtiesandeconomiclosses.Rockburstandcoalandga
4、soutburstarethetypicaldynamicdisasters,sothecoalminedynamicdisastershaveseriouslyaffectedourcountry'scoalmining.Scientificandeffectiveforecastthecoalmine'sdynamicdisasters,canreducetheprobabilityofoccurrenceofdynamicdisaster.Theroughsets-artificialneu
5、ralnetworkandroughsets-supportvectormachinetechnologyareusedtoestablishtherockburstandthecoalandgasoutburstpredictionmodelinthispaper.Themaincontentsareasfollows:Therockburstandcoalandgasoutburstmechanismhavebeenanalyzed;Theroughsets-neuralnetworksand
6、roughsets-supportvectormachinespredictionmodelsoftherockburstriskhavebeenestablished;Theroughsets-neuralnetworksandroughsets-supportvectormachinespredictionmodelsofthecoalandgasoutbursthavebeenestablished;Theabovemodelshavebeentested,andthemodels'pred
7、ictionresultsofroughsets-neuralnetworksandroughsets-supportvectormachineshavebeencompared,theresultsshow:Intherockburstriskpredictionandthecoalandgasaaoutburstprediction,thepredictionaccuracyrateofroughsets-supportvectormachinemodelsarehigherthanthero
8、ughsets-neuralnetworks,sotheroughsets-supportvectormachineapproachismoresuitableforcoalmine'sdynamicdisasterforecastthantheroughsets-neuralnetworkmethod.Keywords:dynamicdisaster,roughsets,neuralnetworks,supportvectormachine,forecastaa山东科技大学硕士学
