资源描述：
《Monetary Policy The Taylor Rule.ppt.pdf》由会员上传分享，免费在线阅读，更多相关内容在学术论文-天天文库。
1、TheTaylorRuleandItsVariantsHistoryoftheTaylorRule•Taylor(1993)*proposesa“feedback”monetarypolicyrule,wherechangesinpolicyinstruments(e.g.,theinterestrate,themonetarybase,themoneysupply)respondstochangesinthepricelevelorrealincome.•Hearguesthatusingrulestotocontrolinflationismoreeffect
2、ivethandiscretionarypolicy•Althoughdifferentstudieshaveshowndifferentresponsivenessoftheinstruments,therehasbeensomeindicationofthefunctionalformsandthesignsofthecoefficients.•Underdiscretionpolicy,thesettingsoftheinstrumentsaredeterminedfromscratcheachperiod--whichmayresultintime-inc
3、onsistencyproblem.*Taylor,J.B.,1993.DiscretionVersusPolicyRulesinPractice.Carnegie-RochesterConferenceSeriesonPublicPolicy39,195-214.1Discretionv.Rules•Apolicyruleisreferredtoasthe“optimal,”the“rules,”orthe“precommitted”solution,toadynamicoptimisationproblem.•Discretionarypolicyisref
4、erredtoasthe“inconsistent,”the“cheating,”orthe“shortsighted”solution.•Thedifferenceandtheadvantageofrulesoverdiscretionarelikethoseofacooperativeoveranoncooperativesolutioningametheory.TaylorRule:FunctionalForm•Taylor(1993)claimsthatpolicyrulesthatseemtoworkwellfocusonthepricelevelan
5、drealoutputdirectly.•Rulesthatfocusonexchangerateorthemoneysupplydonotdeliverasgoodaperformance,whichismeasurebythevariancesofoutputandprice.•Taylor(1993)findsthatplacingapositiveweightonboththepricelevelandrealoutputistheinterest-rateruleispreferableinmostofhissamples.•Heproposesasim
6、plefeedbackrulewheretheweightsplacedontheoutputgapandtheinflationareboth0.5.i=!+0.5y!+0.5(!"2)+22TaylorRule:FunctionalFormi=!+0.5y!+0.5(!"2)+2whereiisthefederalfundsrate,πistherateofinflationoverthepreviousfourquarters,isthepercentagedeviationofrealGDPfromay!target.Thatis,*100(y!y)y!=w
7、here*yyisrealGDP,and*yistrendrealGDP(equals2.2percentperyearfrom1984/01to1992/03)TaylorRule:FunctionalForm•TheTaylorrulehasthefeaturethatthefederalfundsraterisesif–Inflationincreasesaboveatargetof2percentorif–RealGDPrisesabovetrendGDP•NotethatifboththeinflationrateandtherealGDPareontar
8、get,thefeder
