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1、Page3ARandomWalkDownWallStreetIncludingALife-CycleGuideToPersonalInvestingBurtonG.MalkielChemicalBankChairman'sProfessorofEconomicsAtPrincetonUniversityPage4Copyright©1999,1996,1990,1985,1981,1975,1973byW.W.Norton&Company,Inc.AllrightsreservedPrintedintheUnitedStatesofAmericaThetex
2、tofthisbookiscomposedinZapfEllipticalwiththedisplaysetinBerling.DesktopcompositionbyJustineBurkatTrubeyManufacturingbytheHaddonCraftsmen,Inc.LibraryofCongressCataloging-in-PublicationDataMalkiel,BurtonG.ArandomwalkdownWallStreet:includingalife-cycleguidetopersonalinvesting/BurtonG.
3、Malkiel.p.cm.Rev.ed.of:arandomwalkdownWallStreet.c1996.Includesbibliographicalreferencesandindex.ISBN0-393-04781-41.Investments.2.Stocks.3.Randomwalks(Mathematics)I.Malkiel,BurtonG.RandomwalkdownWallStreet.II.Title.HG4521.M2841999332.6—dc2198-50671CIPW.W.Norton&Company,Inc.,500Fift
4、hAvenue,NewYork,N.Y.10110http://www.wwnorton.comW.W.Norton&CompanyLtd.,10CopticStreet,LondonWC1A1PU234567890Page7CONTENTSPreface13AcknowledgmentsfromEarlierEditions17PartOneStocksandTheirValue1.FirmFoundationsandCastlesintheAir23WhatIsaRandomWalk?24InvestingasaWayofLifeToday26Inves
5、tinginTheory28TheFirm-FoundationTheory29TheCastle-in-the-AirTheory31HowtheRandomWalkIstoBeConducted332.TheMadnessofCrowds35TheTulip-BulbCraze36TheSouthSeaBubble39TheFloridaRealEstateCraze45WallStreetLaysanEgg46AnAfterword533.StockValuationfromtheSixtiesthroughtheNineties55TheSanity
6、ofInstitutions55TheSoaringSixties57TheNew"NewEra":TheGrowth-Stock/New-IssueCraze57SynergyGeneratesEnergy:TheConglomerateBoom61PerformanceComestotheMarket:TheBubbleinConceptStocks69TheSourSeventies73TheNiftyFifty73TheRoaringEighties76TheTriumphantReturnofNewIssues76ConceptsConquerAg
7、ain:TheBiotechnologyBubble78Page8TheChineseRomancewiththeLycorisPlant80SomeOtherBubblesofthe1980s81WhatDoesItAllMean?85TheNervyNineties85TheJapaneseYenforLandandStocks85TheInternetCrazeoftheLate1990s90AFinalWord944.TheFirm-FoundationTheoryofStockPrices95The"Fundamental"Determinants
8、ofStockPrices96TwoImportan
