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1、∗ComputationinaDistributedInformationMarket†JoanFeigenbaumLanceFortnowYaleUniversityNECLaboratoriesAmericaDepartmentofComputerScience4IndependenceWayNewHaven,CT06520Princeton,NJ08540feigenbaum@cs.yale.edufortnow@nec-labs.com‡§DavidM.PennockRahulSamiOvertureServices,Inc.YaleUniversity74N.PasadenaAv
2、e,3rdfloorDepartmentofComputerSciencePasadena,CA91103NewHaven,CT06520david.pennock@overture.comsami@cs.yale.eduABSTRACTCategoriesandSubjectDescriptorsAccordingtoeconomictheory—supportedbyempiricalandF.m[TheoryofComputation]:Miscellaneous;J.4[Com-laboratoryevidence—theequilibriumpriceofafinancialse-p
3、uterApplications]:SocialandBehavioralSciences—curityreflectsalloftheinformationregardingthesecurity’sEconomics;C.2.4[ComputerSystemsOrganization]:value.WeinvestigatethecomputationalprocessonthepathComputer-CommunicationNetworks—DistributedSystemstowardequilibrium,whereinformationdistributedamongtra
4、dersisrevealedstep-by-stepovertimeandincorporatedGeneralTermsintothemarketprice.Wedevelopasimplifiedmodelofaninformationmarket,alongwithtradingstrategies,inorderEconomics,Theorytoformalizethecomputationalpropertiesoftheprocess.WeshowthatsecuritieswhosepayoffscannotbeexpressedKeywordsasweightedthresh
5、oldfunctionsofdistributedinputbitsarenotguaranteedtoconvergetotheproperequilibriumpre-Distributedinformationmarket,marketcomputation,in-dictedbyeconomictheory.Ontheotherhand,securitiesformationaggregation,convergencetoequilibrium,rationalwhosepayoffsarethresholdfunctionsareguaranteedtocon-expectati
6、ons,efficientmarketshypothesisverge,forallpriorprobabilitydistributions.Moreover,thesethresholdsecuritiesconvergeinatmostnrounds,wheren1.INTRODUCTIONisthenumberofbitsofdistributedinformation.WealsoThestrongformoftheefficientmarketshypothesisstatesprovealowerbound,showingatypeofthresholdsecuritythatmar
7、ketpricesnearlyinstantlyincorporateallinforma-thatrequiresatleastn/2roundstoconvergeintheworsttionavailabletoalltraders.Asaresult,marketpricesen-case.codethebestforecastsoffutureoutcomesgivenallinfor-mation,eveni
