人大考博英语阅读理解真题模拟练习精选2-育明考博

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1、www.kaobo100.com中国考博辅导第一品牌人大考博英语阅读理解真题模拟练习精选2Exercisetwo：ForecastingofStatisticsNearlytwothousandyearshavepassedsinceacensusdecreedbyCaesarAugustusbecomepartofthegreateststoryevertold.Manythingshavechangedintheinterveningyears.Thehotelindustryworriesmoreaboutoverbuildingthano

2、vercrowding,andiftheyhadtomeetanunexpectedinflux,fewinnswouldhaveamanagertoaccommodatethewearyguests.Nowitisthecensustakerthatdoesthetravelinginthefondhopethatahighlymobilepopulationwillstaylongenoughtogetagoodsampling.Methodsofgathering,recording,andevaluatinginformationhave

3、presumablybeenimprovedagreatdeal.AndwherethenitwasthemodestpurposeofRometoobtainasimpleheadcountasanadequatebasisforlevyingtaxes,nowbatteriesofcomplicatedstatisticalseriesfurnishedbygovernmentalagenciesandprivateorganizationsareeagerlyscannedandinterpretedbysagesandseerstoget

4、acluetofutureevents.TheBibledoesnottellushowtheRomancensustakersmadeout,andasregardsourmoreimmediateconcern,thereliabilityofpresentdayeconomicforecasting,thereareconsiderabledifferencesofopinion.Theywereairedatthecelebrationofthe125thanniversaryoftheAmericanStatisticalAssocia

5、tion.Therewasthethoughtthatbusinessforecastingmightwellbeonitswayfromanarttoascience,andsomespeakerstalkedaboutnewfangledcomputersandhigh-falutinmathematicalsystemintermsofexcitementandendearmentwhichwe,atleastinouryoungeryearswhenthesethingsmattered,wouldhaveassociatedmorere

6、adilywiththedescriptionofafairmaiden.ButotherspointedtothedeplorablerecordofhighlyesteemedforecastsandforecasterswithabattingaveragebelowthatoftheMets,andthePresident-electoftheAssociationcautionedthat“highpoweredstatisticalmethodsareusuallyinorderwherethefactsarecrudeandinad

7、equate,theexactcontraryofwhatcrudeandinadequatestatisticiansassume.”Welefthisbirthdaypartysomewherebetweenhopeanddespairandwiththeconviction,notreallynewlyacquired,thatproperstatisticalmethodsappliedtoascertainablefactshavetheirmeritsineconomicforecastingaslongasneitherforeca

8、sternorpublicisdeludedintomistakingthedelineationofprobabilitiesandt