the art of contrarian trading.pdf

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1、TableofContentsTitlePageCopyrightPagePrefaceCHAPTER1-CanYouBeattheMarket?THESPECULATOR’SEDGELENDINGAHELPINGHANDTOINVESTORSUNCOVERINGMARKETMISTAKESLOOKINGATTHEEVIDENCEMARKETTIMINGCATCH-22CHAPTER2-MarketMistakesEFFICIENTMARKETSROLLERCOASTERSANDSTOCKMARKETSDOSTOCKPRICESFLUCTUATETOOM

2、UCH?ALOOKATBEHAVIORALFINANCEBEHAVIORALFINANCEANDEXPLOITABLEMARKETMISTAKESNOFREELUNCHREDUXCHAPTER3-TheEdgeATHEORYOFMARKETMISTAKESTOGETALONG,GOALONGGOALONGANDCREATEAMISTAKETHESOCIALCALCULUSOFCROWDSTHEVISIONOFACONTRARIANTRADERCHAPTER4-TheWisdomandFolliesofCrowdsCANACROWDBEWISERTHANI

3、TSMEMBERS?THENEEDFORCOLLECTIVEWISDOMINDEPENDENTDECISIONSINTHEFINANCIALMARKETSFORECASTINGMARKETPSYCHOLOGYINFORMATIONCASCADESINTOTHEWHIRLPOOLOFSPECULATIONCHAPTER5-TheLifeCycleandPsychologyofanInvestmentCrowdPROLOGUETHECYCLEOFBIRTHANDDEATHTHESTOCKMARKETBUBBLEOF1994-2000IT’SDIFFERENT

4、THISTIME:THENEWINFORMATIONECONOMYSHATTEREDDREAMS:THEBEARCROWDOF2001-2002POPULARINSTINCTSANDTHESEARCHFORCERTAINTYTHEPIEDPIPERSOFINVESTMENTCROWDSTHEMENTALUNITYOFINVESTMENTCROWDSSUGGESTIBILITY,VOLATILITY,ANDDISINTEGRATIONCHAPTER6-TheHistoricalContextforMarketMistakesMATUREINVESTMENT

5、THEMESANDMARKETCROWDSMISTAKESVERSUSFAIRVALUEMARKETDATASOURCESTHEDEADLYMISTAKEWHENISTHESTOCKMARKET(EXTREMELY)OVERVALUED?WHENISTHESTOCKMARKETUNDERVALUED?THEPEAKOILBUBBLECHAPTER7-HowCrowdsCommunicateWHATDOINFORMATIONCASCADESTELLINVESTORS?THEROLEOFTHEMASSMEDIAAWORDABOUTPERSONALFLEXIB

6、ILITYANDTHEFUTUREOFMEDIAMONITORINGTHEMARKETSSTUDYINGTHEHISTORYOFBUBBLESANDCRASHESCHAPTER8-ConstructingYourMediaDiaryGAININGTHEEDGEHOWMYDIARYMADEADIFFERENCEIN2002GETREADYTOCUTANDPASTEEXCERPTSFROMMYMEDIADIARY:NOVEMBER2005EXCERPTSFROMMYMEDIADIARY:JUNE2006INTERPRETINGMAGAZINECOVERSCH

7、APTER9-ImportantInvestmentThemesTELLINGTHEMARKET’SSTORYNEWERASEFFECTOFWARANDINTERNATIONALPOLITICALCRISESONTHESTOCKMARKETFINANCIALCRISESCREATECROWDSNEWINDUSTRIESANDCOMPANIESCOMMODITYBOOMSINTERESTRATEMOVEMENTSANDTHEBONDMARKETUSINGYOURMEDIADIARYTOTRACKINVESTMENTTHEMESCHAPTER10-Inter

8、pretingYourDiary:MarketSemioticsMEDIAAND