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ID:34353870
大小:378.84 KB
页数:8页
时间:2019-03-05
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1、FinancialTimes报道1:WilltheUS-Chinatradewarimpactonglobalgrowth?TheUSdecisiontoimposetariffson$200bnofChineseimportsmarkedaseriousescalationinitshostilitieswithBeijingovertrade.Yeteconomistsbelieveprotectionistmeasureswillhaveonlyamodestimpactonglobalgrowth—providedthebilateralcon
2、flictdoesnotturnintoanall-outmultilateralwar.Thesefourchartshelpexplainwhy.Internationaltradeingoodshasalreadyfallenasaproportionofglobaloutputinrecentyears,despitetheupswingintheworldeconomy.Thisispartlybecauseofcurrencyeffectsandchangesincommodityprices,butmanufacturersarealso
3、becominglessreliantonimportedinputsandpopularhostilitytoglobalisationmayalsobeplayingapart,withtradedisputesandtheuseofanti-dumpingmeasuresontheriseevenbeforethelatestroundsoftariffs.2.Sofar,tariffsaffectonlyasmallproportionofglobaltradeAlthoughtheUS-Chinaconflictnowlookslikelyt
4、oaffectthevastmajorityofthegoodstradedbetweenthetwocountries,itmakesupamodestproportionofglobaltrade.EveniftheUSactsonallthethreatsithasmadesofar,onlyaround5percentofglobalimportswouldbeaffected3.Formostcountries,tradetieswithnearneighboursarethemostimportantWorldtradeislargelyc
5、oncentratedinthreeregions:NorthAmerica,EuropeandEastAsia,withalargeshareoftradebeingintra-regional.4.EmergingmarketsmaybenefitifthedisputeleadsChinatotrademorewithneighboursinsouth-eastAsia.InternationaltradeislargelycomposedoftradeflowsbetweenrichcountriesandtheEastAsianregionb
6、utdevelopingcountries’tradewithChinaisincreasinglyimportant.Abigquestionnowiswhetherothercountriesinsouth-eastAsiaareabletobenefitfromgreaterintegrationwithChinaasexistingtradeflowsaredivertedtonewmarkets,andifChinesemanufacturersseektoshiftproductiontocountriesnotaffectedbytari
7、ffs.报道2:ChinastockstumbleonUStradewarconcerns(Financialtimes)Chinesestockscementedtheirpositionastheworld’sworstperformingmajorequitymarketonMonday,astheymissedoutonthereturnofsomestabilityfollowinglastweek’sglobalructions.Afterrising22percentin2017,theCSI300,anindexofsomeofthel
8、argestcompanieslistedontheChinesemainland,hastu
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