Economic growth and energy consumption causal nexus viewed through a bootstrap rolling window.pdf

Economic growth and energy consumption causal nexus viewed through a bootstrap rolling window.pdf

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时间:2019-03-04

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1、EnergyEconomics32(2010)1398–1410ContentslistsavailableatScienceDirectEnergyEconomicsjournalhomepage:www.elsevier.com/locate/enecoEconomicgrowthandenergyconsumptioncausalnexusviewedthroughabootstraprollingwindowa,1b,⁎,YalcinArslanturkc,2MehmetBalcilar,ZeynelAbidi

2、nOzdemiraDepartmentofEconomics,EasternMediterraneanUniversity,Famagusta,TurkishRepublicofNorthernCyprus,viaMersin10,TurkeybDepartmentofEconomics,GaziUniversity,Besevler,06500,Ankara,TurkeycGaziUniversity,Teknikokullar,06500,Ankara,TurkeyarticleinfoabstractArticl

3、ehistory:Onepuzzlingresultsintheliteratureonenergyconsumption-economicgrowthcausalityisthevariabilityofReceived20December2009resultsparticularlyacrosssampleperiods,samplesizes,andmodelspecification.InorderovercometheseReceivedinrevisedform17May2010issuesthispaper

4、analyzesthecausallinksbetweenenergyconsumptionandeconomicgrowthforG-7Accepted29May2010countriesusingbootstrapGrangernon-causalitytestswithfixedsizerollingsubsamples.ThedatausedAvailableonline4June2010includesannualtotalenergyconsumptionandrealGrossDomesticProduct

5、(GDP)seriesfrom1960to2006forG-7countries,excludingGermany,forwhichthesampleperiodstartsfrom1971.UsingthefullsampleJELclassifications:bootstrapGrangercausalitytest,wefindthatthereispredictivepowerfromenergyconsumptiontoC22Q43economicgrowthonlyforCanada.However,para

6、meterinstabilitytestsshowthatnoneoftheestimatedQ48modelshaveconstantparametersandhencethefullsampleresultsarenotreliable.Analogoustothefullsampleresults,theresultsobtainedfromthebootstraprollingwindowestimationindicatenoconsistentKeywords:causallinksbetweenenerg

7、yconsumptionandeconomicgrowth.We,however,findthatcausallinksareEconomicgrowthpresentbetweentheseriesinvarioussubsamples.Furthermore,thesesubsampleperiodscorrespondtoEnergyconsumptionsignificanteconomicevents,indicatingthatthefindingsarenotstatisticalartefacts,butco

8、rrespondtorealBootstrapeconomicchanges.Ourresultsencompasspreviousfindingsandofferanexplanationtovaryingfindings.Time-varyingcausality©2010PublishedbyElsevierB.V.1.Intr

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