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1、N9-711-088REV:APRIL19,2011DANTEROSCINIJONATHANSCHLEFERKONSTANTINOSDIMITRIOUTheGreekCrisis:TragedyorOpportunity?ByNovember2010,GeorgePapaconstantinou,theGreekfinanceminister,waspracticallyoblivioustothedailychantsofprrotestersinConstitutionSquareoutsidehisoffice.Heponderedwhetherthepolici
2、eshisgovernmenthadadoptedoverthepastyearwouldallowittoavoidtherestructuringofitspublicdebt—ineffect,partialdefault—thatmanysawaslikely,evenifonlyseveralyearsahead.DuringhisOctober2009electoralcampaign,GeorgePapandreou,leaderofthePanhellenicSocialistMovement(PASOK),hadpromisedtostrengthen
3、socialprotection.Butthepreviousgovernment’sestimatesofthe2009deficit—risingfrom3.7%ofGDPto6.7%ofGDP—hadprovedwildlyoptimistic.1AlmostassoonasPASOKtookoffice,andPapaconstantinouwasnamedfinanceminister,hehadconcludedthatthedeficitwouldbetwiceashigh:12.7%ofGDP.2AndbyNovember2010thedeficitfo
4、r2009wasdeterminedtohavereached15.4%ofGDP.3Asthedeficitnumbersworsened,nervousfinancialmarketshadkeptdemandinghigherinterestratesongovernmentdebt,atonepoointreachingalmost19%.Intheend,onlyanemergencyloanfromtheEuropeanUnion(EU)andtheInternationalMonetaryFund(IMF)inMay2010hadaverteddefaul
5、t.Inreturnthegovernmenthadenactedaharshfiscalretrenchment,reducingsalariesandpensionsforpublicemployees,raisingtheretirementage,cuttingservices,andincreasingtaxes.NowPapandreouwascallingforadrasticdecreaseinthenumberofpublicemployees.4Initialprotestshadbeenviolentbutbackfiredwhenrioterss
6、etfiretoabankincentralAthens,killingthreepeopleandshockingthepublic.Subsequentprotestshadbeenmuted,asifthemoodwasmoreoneofresignationthanoffury.PASOKsurvivedtheNovember7,2010,localelectionsonwhichPrimeMinisterPapandreou,forcedtoreversepolicies,hadstakedhisfuture.Greekbondyieldshadfallens
7、incetheEUandIMFloans,butbylateOctoberyieldsontwo-yearbondsstillstoodat8.7%.SuchsteeepinterestrateswouldnotcauseimmediatetroubleforGreece,sinceEUandIMFloanswouldmeetitsneedsforthenextthreeyears.Buttheypointedtolong-termquestions.WhentheEUandIMFloanprogramended,wouldGreeceh
