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4、inGroup(USA)Inc.Copyright©NateSilver,2012AllrightsreservedIllustrationcreditsFigure4-2:CourtesyofDr.TimParker,UniversityofOxfordFigure7-1:From“1918Influenza:TheMotherofAllPandemics”byJefferyTaubenbergerandDavidMorens,EmergingInfectiousDiseaseJournal,vol.12,no.1,January2006,Centersf
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6、edon’t/NateSilver.p.cm.Includesbibliographicalreferencesandindex.ISBN978-1-101-59595-41.Forecasting.2.Forecasting—Methodology.3.Forecasting—History.4.Bayesianstatisticaldecisiontheory.5.Knowledge,Theoryof.I.Title.CB158.S542012519.5'42—dc232012027308Whiletheauthorhasmadeeveryeffortt
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