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1、EnvisioningChina’sBatteryElectricVehiclesChinaResearch&InsightsCenterJanuary2011Tableofcontents•Executivesummary•Chinamovestowardsagreatermobility•GlobalandChinaEVmarketsataglance•Regulationtrends•MarketStakeholders•Eighthypotheses•Appendix2DeloitteC
2、hinaResearchandInsightCentre(CRIC)©2009DeloitteLLP.Allrightsreserved.ExecutiveSummary•Uneaseoverresourcescarcityandenergysecurity,coupledwithenvironmentalconcerns,promptedthePRCtoimplementa“grandvision”forthedevelopmentoftheautoindustryoverthenext10y
3、ears.WhileChinamaylagbehinddevelopednationstechnologicallyintheICEvehicleindustry,thereisenormousopportunityfortechnologicalinnovationandadvancementinelectricvehiclesforthosewhomovefirstinthisnewindustryandnewmarket.•Tenyearsago,fewwouldhavepredicted
4、thattodayChina’sautomarketwouldbelargerthanthatoftheUS;itissimilarlydifficultnowtomakepredictionsaboutthedevelopmentprospectsforChina’selectricvehiclemarketoverthecomingtenyears.Deloitteanalyzedanumberofmarket-drivenfactors,andcreatedpredictionsfortw
5、oscenarios:thefirst,basedonthegrowthofthetraditionalvehiclemarket;andthesecond,basedonthegrowthofthelower-endvehiclemarket(ie,bikesandmotorbikes).Weestimatethattherewillbe1.25millionEVsontheroadinChinaby2020(governmentprojectionscallfor5million).•Ata
6、macrolevel,severalimportantfactorswilldrivethedevelopmentoftheEVindustry.•HowChina’suniquemobilityfeaturesandneedsgroworconstrainEVuse.•Howthegovernmentshapespolicy.Governmentstandards,marketaccess,incentivesandsubsidies,infrastructureinvestment,andr
7、esourceallocationareallpowerfultools.•HowconsumersadapttotheshiftforICEvehiclestoEVsandhowquicklythesenewtechnologiescanbescaledtomarketsacrossChina.•Howquicklybatterypricesfall,makingEVsaffordableforaverageconsumers;beyondthat,asnewresourcesandnon-t
8、raditionaltechnologiesenterthemarketplace,howEVswillevolvetobecomeanext-generationtransportproductandservice,andhowconsumers’demandswillbeshapedbythesenewtransportoptions.3DeloitteChinaResearchandInsightCentre(CRIC)©2009DeloitteLLP.Allrightsreserved.
