Fuzzy inference system for the risk assessment of liquefied natural gas carriers .pdf

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1、AppliedOceanResearch31(2009)179185ContentslistsavailableatScienceDirectAppliedOceanResearchjournalhomepage:www.elsevier.com/locate/aporFuzzyinferencesystemfortheriskassessmentofliquefiednaturalgascarriersduringloading/offloadingatterminalsTarekElsayedDepartmentofMarineEngineering,ArabAcadem

2、yforScience&Technology&MaritimeTransport,Alexandria,EgyptarticleinfoabstractArticlehistory:Amultipleattributeriskassessmentapproachusingafuzzyinferencesystemisdevelopedinthiswork.Received12September2008Theapproachisbasedontheuseoffuzzysets,arulebaseandafuzzyinferenceengine.TraditionalinputRec

3、eivedinrevisedformprobabilitiesandconsequencesusedinriskassessmentarerepresentedbyfuzzysetstotakeintoaccount26May2009uncertaintiesassociatedwiththeassignmentoftheirvalues.TheoutputriskvaluescanbepresentedasAccepted14August2009crispvaluesorfuzzysetswithassociateddegreeofmembership.Thefuzzyinfe

4、rencesystemFISisusedAvailableonline8September2009asanalternativeapproachtoqualitativeriskmatrixtechniquescurrentlyusedinmanyindustriesandbyshipclassificationsocieties.Twoapproachesforfuzzyinferenceareadopted.TheseincludetheMamdaniKeywords:approachinwhichoutputriskvaluesarefuzzysetsandtheSugen

5、omethodoffuzzyinference,inwhichMultipleattributeRiskassessmentoutputriskvaluesareconstantorlinear.FuzzysetsTheuseofafuzzysetapproachisparticularlysuitedforhandlingmultipleattributeriskproblemswithFuzzyinferencesystemimprecisedata.Itimprovesuponexistingqualitativemethodsandallowstherankingofri

6、skalternativesLNGshipsbasedonaunifiedfuzzyriskindexmeasure.ResultsshowthatwhiletheMamdanimethodisintuitiveLNGterminalsandwellsuitedtohumaninput,theSugenomethodiscomputationallymoreefficientandguaranteescontinuityofthefinalriskoutputsurface.Resultsalsoshowthatcomputedriskvaluesusingafuzzyriski

7、ndexmeasureareconsistentwiththoseobtainedusingaqualitativeriskmatrixapproach.Theproposedmethodologyisalsoapplicabletoothershipoperatingmodessuchastransitinopenseaand/orentering/leavingport.AcasestudyforaliquefiednaturalgasLNGshiploading/offlo