land and house price measurment in china.pdf

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1、LandandHousePriceMeasurementinChinaDraftofJuly25,2012YonghengDengSchoolofDesignandEnvironment,NUSBusinessSchool,andInstituteofRealEstateStudiesNationalUniversityofSingaporeydeng@nus.edu.sgJosephGyourkoTheWhartonSchool,UniversityofPennsylvaniaandNBERgyourko@wharton.upenn.eduJingWuHangLu

2、ngCenterforRealEstate,TsinghuaUniversityandInstituteofRealEstateStudies,NationalUniversityofSingaporeireswujing@tsinghua.edu.cnPreparedfortheReserveBankofAustraliaandBankforInternationalSettlementsConferenceon“PropertyMarketsandFinancialStability”Sydney,AustraliaAugust19-21,2012Theauth

3、orsacknowledgethesponsorshipfromBISRepresentativeOfficeforAsiaandthePacificundertheinitiativeon“PropertyMarketsandFinancialStability.”WealsothankvaluablecommentsfromtheparticipantsattheBISBaselseminar,andBISHongKongseminar.GyourkothankstheGlobalResearchInitiativesProjectoftheWhartonSch

4、ool,UniversityofPennsylvaniaforfinancialsupport.DengandWuthanktheInstituteofRealEstateStudiesatNationalUniversityofSingaporeforfinancialsupport.WualsothankstheNationalNaturalScienceFoundationofChinaforfinancialsupport(No.71003060).WegratefullyacknowledgeJiaHeandMingyingXuforexcellentre

5、searchassistance.1I.IntroductionThestabilityofresidentialpropertymarketshasbecomeanimportanttopicforpolicymakersandscholarseversincethecollapseofthesubprimemortgagemarketintheUnitedStateshelpedprecipitatethelargesteconomiccrisisseeninthatcountrysincetheGreatDepression.Manycommentatorsn

6、owareraisingquestionsaboutthestabilityofhousepricesinChinagivenitsextraordinaryboominvaluesanditsgrowingshareof1globalgrowth.Inthispaper,wetakeacloserlookattheChinesepropertymarkets.Twofeaturesofitshousingmarketareinvestigatedindetail.Oneisitslandmarket.Chinaisvirtuallyuniquegloballyin

7、thatsalesofvacantlandareregularlyobservedinallcities.Ifstructuresareinfairlyelasticsupply,thenstandardtheorysuggeststhatvariationinlandvaluesshouldaccountformostofthevariationoverallhouseprices.Thus,thelandmarketcouldserveasacriticalearlyleadingindicatorforthebroaderpropertymarketinC