Analysis of hydrogeological structure uncertainty by estimation of hydrogeological acceptance probability of geostatistical models.pdf

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1、AdvancesinWaterResources36(2012)64–74ContentslistsavailableatScienceDirectAdvancesinWaterResourcesjournalhomepage:www.elsevier.com/locate/advwatresAnalysisofhydrogeologicalstructureuncertaintybyestimationofhydrogeologicalacceptanceprobabilityofgeostatis

2、ticalmodelsDylanR.Harp⇑,VelimirV.VesselinovLosAlamosNationalLaboratory,MST003,LosAlamos,NM87544,USAarticleinfoabstractArticlehistory:ThefollowingdescribesaproposedapproachtoaccountfortheequifinalityofsolutionsthatresultfromAvailableonline25June2011compar

3、ingobservationstoflowsimulationswhenusingrealizationsofgeostatisticalmodels.Weintro-ducehydrogeologicalacceptanceprobabilitytoestimatethepropensityofageostatisticalmodeltopro-Keywords:duceacceptablerealizationswithrespecttotheconsistencyoftheirsimulation

4、swithobservations.ThePreemptivesamplingestimationofhydrogeologicalacceptanceprobabilityisequivalenttothecalculationofthesamplemeanStochastichydrologyofaBernoullidistribution.ThisallowstheestimationoftheacceptanceprobabilitytobepreemptivelyDempster–Shafe

5、rtheoryterminatedbasedonthecurrentestimateandsubjecttothedesiredconfidencelevelandintervallength.Weproposeacompositeuncertaintyanalysisofthehydrogeologicalheterogeneityutilizingacceptablerealizationsfrommultiplegeostatisticalmodelscollectedduringtheestim

6、ationoftheiracceptanceprob-ability.Inthecaseofanon-fuzzydefinitionofrealizationacceptance,thisproducesafaciesprobabilitymap.Ifthedefinitionofrealizationacceptanceisimprecise,theanalysisyieldsupperandlowerboundsonthefaciesprobabilitymapintheformoffaciespla

7、usibilityandbeliefmaps,respectively.Thesemapscanprovideindicationsoftheinformationcontentofthedataandprovideguidanceforthecollectionofadditionaldata.Ó2011ElsevierLtd.Allrightsreserved.1.Introductionsinglesolution,especiallyinthecaseofstochasticmodels,wh

8、ereeachparametersetcharacterizesaninfinitesetofsolutions.ThecollectionofasufficientnumberofdirectobservationstoWellknownapproachestoaccountfortheequifinalityofsolu-adequatelycharacterizehydrogeologicalheterogeneityisagoaltions(i.e.m