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1、JANUARY2014WhatcouldhappeninChinain2014?GordonOrrTheyearaheadcouldseecompaniesfocusondrivingproductivity,CIOsbecomingahotcommodity,shoppingmallsgoingbankrupt,andEuropeansoccerclubsfinallyinvestinginChineseones.McKinseydirectorGordonOrrmakeshisannualpredictions.1.Twop
2、hraseswillbeimportantfor2014:‘productivitygrowth’and‘technologicaldisruption’China’slaborcostscontinuetorisebymorethan10percentayear,landcostsarepricingofficesoutofcitycenters,thecostofenergyandwaterisgrowingsomuchthattheymayberationedinsomegeographies,andthecostofca
3、pitalishigher,especiallyforstate-ownedenterprises.Basically,allmajorinputcostsaregrowing,whileintensecompetitionand,often,overcapacitymakeitincrediblyhardtopasspriceincreasesontocustomers.China’ssolution?Higherproductivity.Companieswilladoptglobalbestpracticesfromwhe
4、revertheycanbefound,whichexplainswhyrecentinternationalfieldtripsofChineseexecutiveshavetakenonamuchmoreserious,substantivetone.Thisproductivityfocuswillextendbeyondmanufacturing.Inagriculture,thepaceatwhichlargerfarmsemergeshouldaccelerate,spurringmechanizationandmo
5、reefficientirrigationandgivingfarmerstheabilitytofinancethepurchaseofhigher-qualityseeds.Serviceswillalsobeaffected:forcompanieswherelaborisnowthefastest-growingcost,asustainededgeinproductivitymaymakeallthedifference.Andinindustryafterindustry,companieswillfeelthedi
6、sruptiveimpactoftechnology,whichwillhelpthemgeneratemorefromlessandpotentiallyspawnentirelynewbusinessmodels.ConsiderChina’sbankingsector,wherebricks-and-mortarscalehasbeenacriticaldifferentiatorforthepasttwodecades.Ifprivatebankstart-upswereallowed,couldweseeadigita
7、l-onlymodel,offeringcomprehensiveserviceswithouthighphysicalcosts?WillChineseconsumersbewillingtobankonline?Absolutely—iftheirwillingnesstoshoponlineisanyguide.22.CIOsbecomeahotcommodityThereisaparadoxwhenitcomestotechnologyinChina.Ontheonehand,thecountryexcelsincons
8、umer-orientedtechservicesandproducts,anditboaststheworld’slargeste-commercemarketandaveryvibrantInternetandsocial-mediaecosystem.On