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1、EnvironmentInternational,Vol.25,No.6/7,pp.907-912.1999PergamonCopyright01999ElsevierScienceLtdPrintedintheUSA.Allrightsreserved0160-4120/99/S-seefrontmatterPI1SO160-4120(99)00059-SOPPORTUNITIESANDROLESFORMODELSTOAIDTHEMANAGEMENTOFAGRICULTURALANDOTHERNA
2、TURALRESOURCESWITHINTHEVARIABLECLIMATEOFAUSTRALIADavidH.WhiteAS!TConsulting,Hawker,P.O.Box328,ACT2614,AustraliaEI9808-209M(Received31August1998;accepted6April1999)Australianruralproducersandotherlandmanagersarebeingencouraged,undertheNationalDroughtPol
3、icy,tobemoreself-reliantinthewaytheycopewiththeirhighlyvariableclimate.Therolesofmodelsinimplementingthispolicyaredescribed.TheseincludeusingstatisticalandGeneralCirculationModelsasthebasisofimprovedseasonalforecasting,hydrologicalandagronomicmodelstom
4、onitorregionalchangesinsoilmoistureandvegetativecover,andDecisionSupportSystemstoestimatethevalueofadaptingmanagementtotakeadvantageofseasonalfore-castsorofclimatevariabilityperse.Anationalresearchprogramwasundertakentostudyhowagronomicmodelscouldbeuse
5、dtoestimatetheimpactofdroughtoncropandgrasslandpro-duction,sinceonlyinthemostexceptionaldroughtswouldruralproducersbeeligibleforgovem-mentsupport.Suchmodelsprovedeffectiveforevaluatingdroughtsinspecificlocations,andarenowbeingintegratedwithremotesensin
6、gandotherdataintoGeographicInformationSystemstoaidregionalassessmentofdrought.Itwasconcludedthatthesetoolsprovidedasoundbasisforimprovingthemanagementofagriculturalandothernaturalresources.01999ElsevierScienceLtdINTRODUCTIONAustraliaisapredominantlyari
7、dcontinentwithaTheobjectivesoftheNDPareto:1)encouragehighlyvariableclimateandahighincidenceofdroughtprimaryproducersandothersectionsofruralAustralia(McBrideandNicholls1983).Governmentsupportfortoadoptself-reliantapproachestomanagingforclima-drought-aff
8、ectedfarmershasbeenconsiderable,ticvariability;2)maintainandprotectAustralia’sagri-leadingtoa1989reviewofdroughtpolicy.InAugustculturalandenvironmentalresourcebaseduringperi-1992,theFederalandStategovernmentsadoptedaodsofextremeclimates
