Is the Commodity Super-Cycle Over.pdf

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1、19March2012SecuritiesResearch&Analyticshttp://www.credit-suisse.com/researchandanalyticsChina:IstheCommoditySuper-CycleOver?ConnectionSeriesTheGreatChinaDebateThepaceofChineseeconomicgrowthhasgraduallyslowedoverthepastyearastheeconomicstimulushasfadedandgover

2、nmenthastightenedpolicytowardoffasurgeininflation.Notsurprisingly,asgrowthhasmoderated,viewsontheoutlookforbothGDPandbasicmaterialconsumptionhavediverged.Giventhesignificancetoglobalcommoditymarkets,theCreditSuisseSecuritiesResearchdepartmenthashadahealthydeb

3、ateabouttheoutlook.Inthisreport,wesharewithyousomeofthecontoursofthatinternaldebate.Byfocusingonthemoredifficultissues,wehopetoprovideclientswithausefulresourcetoassistwiththeirassessmentofthevariouspointsofview.WhereWeAgreeAcrossSecuritiesResearch,weagreetha

4、tTheCreditSuisseConnectionsSeriesleveragesour1.Ahardlandingisunlikely.exceptionalbreadthofmacroandmicroresearchtodeliverincisivecross-assetandcross-borderthematicinsightsfor2.Creditconditionshaveimproved.ourclients.3.A2009styleofstimuluslaterthisyearisunlikel

5、y.ResearchAnalystsAreasofGreaterUncertaintyCOMMODITIESRESEARCHChinaEconomicsTeam’sCoreViewsRicDeverell1.Liquidityhasimproved,butthedemandreboundislikelytobemuted.+442078832523ric.deverell@credit-suisse.com2.China’sdemandsuper-cycleforcommoditiesisover.AndrewS

6、hawChinaBasicMaterialsTeam’sCoreViews+65621242441.ThestagnantgrowthoutlookforChina’sinfrastructureandpropertysectors,andrew.shaw@credit-suisse.comcombinedwithconstruction-biasedChinesedemand,markstheendoftheEQUITYRESEARCHChinesecommoditysuper-cycle.WeexpectCh

7、inatosoftlandandTrinaChencommoditiestofeelmostofthe“pain.”+85221017031trina.chen@credit-suisse.com2.Cyclicalfactors–suchas“normalization”ofthehighbasis,correctionofover-production/construction,andtheripplingeffectsofthepropertyslowdownonEMECONOMICSrelatedsect

8、ors–shouldmake2012adifficultyearforChinesecommodityDongTaodemand.+85221017469dong.tao@credit-suisse.comGlobalCommoditiesResearchTeam’sCoreViews1.Chinesebasicmaterialdemandislikelytoremain