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1、CLIMATESTRATEGYWITHCO2CAPTUREFROMTHEAIRDAVIDW.KEITH1,MINHHA-DUONG2andJOSHUAHK.STOLAROFF31DepartmentofChemicalandPetroleumEngineering,UniversityofCalgary,2500UniversityDriveNW,Calgary,AB,CanadaT2N1N4E-mail:keith@ucalgary.ca2CNRS-CIRED,CampusduJardinTropical,45bis,av.delaBelleGabrielle
2、,94736NogentsurMarneCEDEX,France3DepartmentofEngineeringandPublicPolicy,CarnegieMellonUniversity,5000ForbesAve,Pittsburgh,PA15213,USAAbstract.ItisphysicallypossibletocaptureCO2directlyfromtheairandimmobilizeitingeologicalstructures.Aircapturediffersfromconventionalmitigationinthreeke
3、yaspects.First,itremovesemissionsfromanypartoftheeconomywithequaleaseordifficulty,soitscostprovidesanabsolutecaponthecostofmitigation.Second,itpermitsreductioninconcentrationsfasterthanthenaturalcarboncycle:theeffectsofirreversibilityarethuspartlyalleviated.Third,becauseitisweaklycoup
4、ledtoexistingenergyinfrastructure,aircapturemayofferstrongereconomiesofscaleandsmalleradjustmentcoststhanthemoreconventionalmitigationtechnologies.Weassesstheultimatephysicallimitsontheamountofenergyandlandrequiredforaircaptureanddescribetwosystemsthatmightachieveaircaptureatpricesun
5、der200and500$/tCusingcurrenttechnology.Likegeoengineering,aircapturelimitsthecostofaworst-caseclimatescenario.Inanoptimalse-quentialdecisionframeworkwithuncertainty,existenceofaircapturedecreasestheneedfornear-termprecautionaryabatement.Thelong-termeffectistheopposite;assumingthatmar
6、ginalcostsofmiti-gationdecreasewithtimewhilemarginalclimatechangedamagesincrease,thenaircaptureincreaseslong-runabatement.AircaptureproducesanenvironmentalKuznetscurve,inwhichconcentrationsarereturnedtopreindustriallevels.1.IntroductionItisphysicallypossibletocaptureCO2directlyfromai
7、randimmobilizeitingeologicalstructures.Today,therearenolarge-scaletechnologiesthatachieveaircaptureatreasonablecost.Yet,severalstrongargumentssuggestthatitwillbepossibletodeveloppracticalaircapturetechnologiesonthetimescalesrelevanttoclimatepolicy(Elliottetal.,2001;ZemanandLackner,20
8、04).Moreover
