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1、PRIMERONFoodScience&TechnologyIneverydecisioncontexttherearethingsweknowandthingswedonotknow.Riskanalysisusesscienceandthebestavailableevidencetoassesswhatweknow—anditisintentionalinthewayitaddressestheimportanceofthethingswedon’tknow.PrimeronRiskAnalysis:DecisionM
2、akingUnderUncertaintylaysoutthetasksofriskanalysisinastraightforward,conceptualmannerthatisconsistentwiththeriskmodelsofallcommunitiesofpractice.Thisprimertacklesthequestion,“whatisriskanalysis?”DistillingthecommonRISKANALYSISprinciplesofthemanyrisktribesanddialect
3、sintoserviceabledefinitionsandnarratives,itprovidesafoundationforthepracticeofriskanalysisanddecisionmakingunderuncertaintyforprofessionalsfromallwalksoflife.Readerslearnthelanguage,models,andconceptsofriskanalysisanditsthreecomponenttasks—riskmanagement,assessment
4、,andcommunication.Makingadistinctionbetweenknowledgeuncertaintyandnaturalvariability,thebookalsointroducesadown-to-earthapproachtodecisionmakingunderuncertainty.Extensiveexamplesillustratetheapplicabilityoftheriskanalysisprinciples.Thebook’ssimpleandstraightforward
5、style—basedontheauthor’sdecadesofexperienceasariskanalyst,trainer,andeducator—stripsawaythemysteriousaurathatoftenaccompaniesriskanalysis.Itdescribestheprinciplesofriskanalysisinamannerthatenablesreaderstobetterunderstandandusethemodelsandpracticeoftheirindividualf
6、ields,andtogainaccesstotherichandsophisticatedprofessionalliteratureonriskanalysis.Acompanionvolume,PrinciplesofRiskAnalysis:DecisionMakingUnderUncertainty,suppliesthetools,techniques,andmethodologiestohelpreadersapplytheprinciplesofriskanalysis—the“howto.”YOEK1269
7、1K12691_Cover.indd16/9/111:33PMPRIMERONRISKANALYSISDECISIONMAKINGUNDERUNCERTAINTYPRIMERONRISKANALYSISDECISIONMAKINGUNDERUNCERTAINTYCHARLESYOECRCPressTaylor&FrancisGroup6000BrokenSoundParkwayNW,Suite300BocaRaton,FL33487-2742©2012byTaylor&FrancisGroup,LLCCRCPressisan
8、imprintofTaylor&FrancisGroup,anInformabusinessNoclaimtooriginalU.S.GovernmentworksVersionDate:20110520InternationalStandardBookNumber-13:978-1-43