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1、BlackwellHandbookofJudgmentandDecisionMakingBlackwellHandbookofJudgmentandDecisionMakingEditedbyDerekJ.KoehlerandNigelHarvey©2004byBlackwellPublishingLtdexceptforeditorialmaterialandorganization©2004byDerekJ.KoehlerandNigelHarveyBLACKWELLPUBLISHING350MainStreet,Malden,MA02148-5020
2、,USA108CowleyRoad,OxfordOX41JF,UK550SwanstonStreet,Carlton,Victoria3053,AustraliaTherightofDerekJ.KoehlerandNigelHarveytobeidentifiedastheAuthorsoftheEditorialMaterialinthisWorkhasbeenassertedinaccordancewiththeUKCopyright,Designs,andPatentsAct1988.Allrightsreserved.Nopartofthispub
3、licationmaybereproduced,storedinaretrievalsystem,ortransmitted,inanyformorbyanymeans,electronic,mechanical,photocopying,recordingorotherwise,exceptaspermittedbytheUKCopyright,Designs,andPatentsAct1988,withoutthepriorpermissionofthepublisher.Firstpublished2004byBlackwellPublishingL
4、tdLibraryofCongressCataloging-in-PublicationDataBlackwellhandbookofjudgmentanddecisionmaking/editedbyDerekJ.KoehlerandNigelHarvey.—1sted.p.cm.Includesbibliographicalreferencesandindex.ISBN1–4051–0746–4(hardcover:alk.paper)1.Decisionmaking.2.Judgment.I.Koehler,DerekJ.II.Harvey,Nige
5、l.III.Title.BF448.B572004153.4′6—dc222004010356AcataloguerecordforthistitleisavailablefromtheBritishLibrary.Setin10.5/12.5ptAdobeGaramondbyGraphicraftLimited,HongKongPrintedandboundintheUnitedKingdombyTJInternational,Padstow,CornwallThepublisher’spolicyistousepermanentpaperfrommil
6、lsthatoperateasustainableforestrypolicy,andwhichhasbeenmanufacturedfrompulpprocessedusingacid-freeandelementarychlorine-freepractices.Furthermore,thepublisherensuresthatthetextpaperandcoverboardusedhavemetacceptableenvironmentalaccreditationstandards.ForfurtherinformationonBlackwe
7、llPublishing,visitourwebsite:http://www.blackwellpublishing.comContentsListofContributorsviiiListofFiguresandTablesxiPrefacexivPartI:Approaches11RationalityandtheNormative/DescriptiveDistinction3DavidOver2NormativeModelsofJudgmentandDecisionMaking19JonathanBaron3SocialJudgmentTheo
8、ry:ApplyingandExtendingBrunswik’s
