多恩布什《宏观经济学》第十版英文原版i08revised

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1、CHAPTER8POLICYPREVIEWChapterOutline·MonetarypolicyandtheFed·Short-runpolicygoals·TheTaylorrule·Interestratesandaggregatedemand·Open-loopandclosed-loopcontrolChangesfromthePreviousEditionThisisanewchapter,presentinganoverviewofshort-runmonetarypolicygoalsandtheways

2、inwhichacentralbankcaninfluenceaggregatedemandbysettinginterestrates.EmphasisisgiventotheTaylorrule,whichadvocatessettingthelevelforthefederalfundsrateinresponsetodeviationsfromdesiredlevelsofGDPorinflation.MostofthematerialofformerChapter8hasbeenshiftedbacktonewC

3、hapter17,inwhichmacroeconomicpolicyissuesarediscussedinmoredetail.IntroductiontotheMaterialMostofthemacroeconomicpoliciesdesignedtokeeptheU.S.economyoncoursearesetbytheFedinmeetingsoftheFOMC(FederalOpenMarketCommittee).TheFOMCiscomprisedoftheseven-memberBoardofGov

4、ernorsplusfiveofthetwelveFederalReserveBankpresidents.TheChairoftheBoardofGovernorspresidesovertheseFOMCmeetingsandhasthemostinfluencethedecisionmakingprocess.Whilemonetarypolicycaninfluenceeconomicactivityintheshortrun,itcanonlyaffecttherateofinflationinthelongru

5、n.Centralbanksconductmonetarypolicybyinfluencingshort-terminterestrateswiththegoalofachievingahighlevelofeconomicactivitywithalowlevelofinflation.IntheU.S.,theFedcurrentlydoesthisbyannouncingafederalfundsratetarget.Thetargetissetbasedoncurrenteconomicconditionsbut

6、alsowithaneyeonpossiblefutureconditions.TheFedattemptstoachievethetargetthroughopenmarketoperations,thatis,thebuyingandsellingofTreasurybills.WhiletheFeddoesnotfollowafixedruleinsettingthefederalfundsrate,theactualbehaviorofthefederalfundsrateoverthelastfewdecades

7、closelyfollowsthepredictionsoftheso-calledTaylorrule,firstadvocatedbyJohnB.TaylorofStanfordUniversity(seeBox8-2).ThisrulerecommendsthattheFedraisethefederalfundsrateby1.5percentiftheinflationrateincreasesby1percentaboveacertaintargetinflationrateandthatthefederalf

8、undsrateshouldberaisedby0.5percentiftheGDP-gapincreasesby1percent.Somecentralbankshavespecificinflationtargets;theU.S.Fedoptsinsteadforsomeflexibilityon