多恩布什《宏观经济学》第十版英文原版i06revised

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1、CHAPTER6AGGREGATESUPPLY:WAGES,PRICES,ANDUNEMPLOYMENTChapterOutline·ThePhillipscurve·Stagflation·Rationalexpectationsandtheroleofmistakes·Reasonsforwageandpricestickiness·ThederivationoftheAS-curve·Okun'slaw·SupplyshocksandpolicyresponsesChangesfromth

2、ePreviousEditionSection6-1hasbeenmovedtoChapter5andalltablesandgraphshavebeenupdated.IntroductionoftheMaterialChapter6developsthetheoryoftheprice–outputrelationshipalongtheaggregatesupplyinmoredetail.ThePhillipscurve,whichshowsanempiricalinverserelat

3、ionshipbetweentheunemploymentrateandincreasesinthenominalwagerate,canbeexpandedintoarelationshipbetweeninflationandunemployment.ThisimpliesthatthePhillipscurveandtheAS-curvecanbeviewedastwoalternativewaystostudypriceadjustments.TheoldviewofthePhillip

4、scurvesuggestedaclearpolicytrade-offbetweentherateofinflationandtheunemploymentrate.Ifthisrelationshipheldovertime,policydecision-makerscouldalwayschoosethemostdesirablecombinationofunemploymentandinflationalongthiscurve.ThebasisforthePhillipscurveis

5、theobservationthatwagesadjustonlyslowlytochangesintheunemploymentrate.Theinflation-expectations-augmentedPhillipscurveisintroducedinSection6-2.Hereitisassumedthatinflationaryexpectationsareconstantintheshort-run(alongthedownward-slopingPhillipscurve)

6、,butwheneverinflationaryexpectationsincrease,theshort-runPhillipscurvewillshifttotheright.Outputisatitsfull-employmentlevelonlyifexpectedinflationisequaltoactualinflation.ThisnewerviewofthePhillipscurvecanalsobeusedtoexplainperiodsofstagflation,thati

7、s,highinflationinperiodsofhighunemployment.StagflationoccurswhentheeconomymovestotherightalongaPhillipscurvethatincludesahighcomponentofexpectedinflation.Sincetheexpectations-augmentedPhillipscurveisbuiltontheassumptionthatpeoplearewrongaboutinflatio

8、ninaverypredictablewayRobertLucasmodifiedtheideaofrationalexpectationsbyallowingformistakes.Temporarydeviationsfromthefull-employmentlevelofoutputarepossibleduetoforecastingerrors,butthesedeviationsdonotlastverylong,aspeopleultimatelyrecognizetheirer