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《天山乌鲁木齐河源区夏季0℃层高度变化特征与其对径流与冰川的影响》由会员上传分享，免费在线阅读，更多相关内容在行业资料-天天文库。
1、度序列与日平均径流序列的最大相关系数的累计天数大部分是3天或4天。1985-2006年，1号冰川水文点0℃层高度序列与日平均径流序列的回归模型均能通过方程的显著性检验，表明0℃层高度序列与日平均径流之间存在非线性关系。（3）1960-2006年1号冰川积累量和平衡值都呈下降趋势，其中积累量下降趋势显著，消融量、平衡线高度和0℃层高度都呈增加趋势。从多项式拟合曲线可以看出，消融量、平衡线和0℃层高度高呈先下降后上升的趋势。积累量呈平稳下降。平衡值呈先上升后下降的总趋势。通过相关分析，0℃层高度与消融量、平衡线高度呈正相关，即随着
2、0℃层高度的升高，消融量增大，平衡线高度抬升；0℃层高度与积累量、平衡值呈负相关，即随着0℃层高度的升高，积累量减少，平衡值减小。关键词：乌鲁木齐河源；夏季；0℃层高度；径流；1号冰川IIAbstractBasedonthedataofthe0℃isothermheightofUrumqiairsoundingstationfrom1960to2011,andthedataofaveragedailystreamflowfrom1985to2006comingfromthreehydrologicalobservationst
3、ationfromtheheadwateroftheUrumqiRiver(GlacierNo.1hydrologicalobservationstation,Ice-freeCirquehydrologicalobservationstationandMasterControlhydrologicalobservationstation)intheheadwateroftheUrumqiRiverinsummerseasonofTianshanandthedataofdailyaveragestreamflowofUrumq
4、ihydrologicalobservationstationandtheobservationdataofGlacierNo.1from1960to2006.Thepaperfirstanalyzesthevariationtrendandsomesuddenchangessituationof0℃isothermheightduringnearly52yearsapplyingstatisticalmethods,Mann-Kendallmethodsandsoon;secondlyanalyzesthe0℃isother
5、mheightandthevariationtrendofdailyaveragestreamflowoftheheadwateroftheUrumqiRiverinsummerseasonfrom1985to2006andthecorrelationbetweenthem;atlastquantitativelyanalyzesthecorrelationbetweenthe0℃isothermheightandNo.1Glacierfrom1960to2011insummerseason.Themainconclusion
6、saremadeasfollowsthroughtheresearch:(1)From1960to2011,the0℃isothermheightsareallontherise,buttherisingextentsaredifferent,inwhichthe0℃isothermheightofJulyshowsthemostobviousrisingtrend,followedbysummerseason.The0℃isothermheightofJune,Augustandsummerseasonallshowthed
7、ecliningtrendfirstandthenriseinstead,andthe0℃isothermheightofJulypresentsasteadyupwardtrend.Duringnearly52yearsthe0℃isothermheightshowsarisetrendasawhole,however,thereagreatdifferenceofthechangesamongdifferentyears.Ingeneral,the0℃isothermheightofJune,July,Augustandt
8、hewholesummerinthe1970’sallshowadecliningtrend,andthenfromthe1990’sto2000andlaterthe0℃isothermheightpresentsarisetrend,whichexplainsthatth
