近50年塔里木河源流区气候变化及其对径流量的影响

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1、AbstractWiththeglobetemperatureincreasing，thetemperatureofthethreeWaterResourcesintheHeadwatersoftheTarimRiverhavetheincreasetendency,thentheclimatechangemusttoaffecttherunoff．T11ispaperbasedonthemeteorologyandhydrologydatanear50yearsoftheWaterResourcesintheHeadwatersoftheTarimRiverandh

2、asdiscussedtheclimaticchangeanditsinfluenceontherunoff．Theresultsshowthat：l、TherunoffoverallpresentstheincreasetendencyofthethreeWaterResourcesintheHeadwatersoftheTarimRiverinthepast50years，andtherewasundulationprocessintheperiod，especiallymanifestedafterthe90’S，thehighwateryearsapprare

3、dmoretimes；usingKendallanalysisandHurstindexareappliedtoanalyzethetendencyandpersistenceofnaturalrunoffofthreeresou／vA：s．therunoffpresentstheincreasetendencyofAksuRiverBasin,theincreaseoftendencyandpersistenceareveryobvious；therunoffpresentsthedecreasetendencyofHotanRiverBasin,buttheten

4、dencyisn’tobvious．inthefuturetherandomicityismoreobvious；therunoffpresentstheincreasetendencyofYarkendRiverBasin,andtheincreasetendencyisn’tobvious，thechangeofrunoffhasnotonlyrandomicitybutpersistence．2、Makethecorrelationanalysistotherunoffandtherainfallandthetemperature，withthetemperat

5、ureincreasingbytheage，itisinfluencetherunoffmoreandmoreremarkabale．thetemperatuteaseensionhasacceleratedtheablationofsnowandiceresourcesinmountainousarea．Thusitenlargedthesuppliestoamountofrunoff．Btitsimultaneouslyitcausedthetranspirationtoincrease，addedconsumptionofthesurfacefreshwater

6、resources．Itcallweakentheincreaseofwaterwhichcomefromthemountainous．butthegrowthspeedoftheisrarerthanthespeedofthetranspiration,sothetranspirationrateprecipitationincreasealSOiSinsufficienttocausetherunoffreduction．therunoff3、Thesencitivityrespondoftherunofftotheclimatechangeshowthat,ru

7、noffwouldreductindifferemdegreeswhenitinthesanletemperaturebuttherainfallincrease．Therainfallincreasewillleadtolowerthetemperature，sothatthesnowandicemeltwaterwillreduct．Boththeresults,runoffincreasedunconspicuously．Keyword：Runoff,Climaticfactors，WaterResourcesintheHeadwatersof