上市公司财务危机预警实证研究——基于制造业的经验数据

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1、ABSTRACTWiththeestablishmentandperfectionofsocialistmarketeconomicsystemandthefastdevelopmentofthecapitalmarket，thecomplexityanduncertaintyineconomicfieldbecomesincreasinglyevident，andthequalityofthecompaniessinkintothefinancialdistressismountingup．Anyfinancial

2、crisisisaprocesswhichappearsgraduallyandworsensunceasingly．Howtowarnearlythecrisis，eliminatethecrisisintheembryonicstage，makeenterprisedevelopcontinuouslyandhealthy,thisnotonlyisthekeypointwhichthelistedcompanypaysattentionto，alsobecomeurgentneedforvariousbenef

3、itcounterparts．Therefore．itiSnecessarytoestablishthefinancialcrisispredictionmodelwhichcallforecasteffectivelyfinancialconditionoftheenterpriseandguardagainsttheappearanceofthefinancialcrisis．Thepurposeofthispaperistofindearly—warningindicatorsthatCanremarkably

4、distinguishbetweenthefinancialcrisiscompanyandthenon—financialcrisiscompanythroughanalyzingfinancialindicatorsandequitystructureindicatorsofthelistedcompany，establishearly—warningmodelonfinancialcrisisthatissuitableforthelistedcompaniesofourcountry,providethema

5、king．policybasisandtheadviceforrelatedrespects．Thetraditionalfinancialearly．warningresearchlaysemphasisonthefinancialvariableresearch，butignorenon．financialvariablewhichisdifficulttoquantify．Thearticleintegratescorporategovernance，capitalofmanpowerandfinancialc

6、risis．Thecorporategovernanceandcapitalofmanpowervariablesareusedtoestablishfinancialdistressmodel，insomesenseitsupplyreferencestotheperfectionoftheresearchofthefinancialdistresspredictioninourcountry．Withthereferenceofdomesticandintemationalscholar’Sstudies．thi

7、sarticleregardsthelistedcompanywhichistreatedspeciallyduetounusualfinanciaIconditioninShanghaiandShenzhenstockmarketastheresearchobject．selectsthetrainingsampleswhicharecomposedof48financialcrisiscompaniesand48AnEmpiricalStudyofFinancialCrisisPredictionofListed

8、Companr—BasedontheDataofChineseManufacturingIndustrynormalcompanies，chooses20financialindexes，4corporategovernanceand3capitalofmanpowerindexes．InvirtueofstatisticsoftwareofS