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1、9e74ad026830c7681b4cfbf42fa52daf.doc,Page8of8BackSensitivityAnalysisforPayoffTablesQ:Whatisasensitivityanalysis?A:Awayofcheckingtheassumptionofdeterminism.D:Theassumptionofdeterminismisthatthedataisperfectlyaccurate.Thisisn’ttrue,becauseallofourdatadealswiththefuture,soallthedataareforecasts,a
2、ndweknowthatforecastsarenever100%accurate.Inaccurate,though,canmeandifferentthings.Toamathematician,beingwrongbyapennyorbeingwrongby$1millionisjustthesame–inbothcasesyouwerewrong.Toabusinessperson,though,aforecastthatiswrongbyonlyapennyisincrediblygood.Abusinesspersonwouldn’tmindbeingwrongbyhu
3、ndredsorthousandsofdollars,butusuallygetsupsets/heiswrongbymillionsofdollars.Thismeansthatthemathematicaldefinitionofinaccuracyandthebusiness-worlddefinitionarevastlydifferent.Weknowtheassumptionofdeterminismiswronginthemathematicalsense,butweneedtofindoutwhetherornotit(andthereforethedata)isa
4、cceptableinthebusiness-worldsense.That’swhereasensitivityanalysiscomesin.Accurateornot,thedataisbestwecouldget,sotheassumptionletsusgettoworkwithoutworryingabouthowaccuratethedatais.Oncewehavefinishedanalyzingthedata,andknowourrecommendation,wecangobackandlookatthisassumption.Q:Whychecktheassu
5、mptionafterwehaveusedthedata?A:Hopefullyasaconfidence-builder,possiblyasawarningtoanyonewhohastoimplementtherecommendationwemake.D:Wecan’tcheckitbeforeweusethedata,sowehavetocheckitafter.Q:Whycan’twedoasensitivityanalysisbeforeweusethedata?A:Toperformasensitivityanalysis,wehavetoknowwhichalter
6、nativewearegoingtorecommend.Wealsoneedtoknowwhichalternativeissecond,thoughthatislessimportant.D:Whenwefinishthesensitivityanalysis,Iwillgiveyouasetofoptionsforhowtorespondtowhatyoulearnfromthesensitivityanalysis.Q:What’sthefirststepofasensitivityanalysis?A:Tolookatthedataforthealternativeyouh
7、avechosentorecommend,andmakeitworse.Q:Whyworse?A:Makingthedataforyourpreferredalternativesbetterwouldonlyreinforceyourrecommendation.Youwanttofindoutwhatwouldmakeyouchangeyourmind.D:Hereisthesituation:youhavegatheredthebestdatayoucould,
