资源描述：
《feasibility analysis -sensitivity analysis of an 敏感性分析的可行性分析》由会员上传分享，免费在线阅读，更多相关内容在学术论文-天天文库。
1、CHAPTERTWOFEASIBILITYANALYSIS-SENSITIVITYANALYSISOFANENERGYPRODUCTIONSTATION(THEWINDENERGYCASE)1.INTRODUCTIONAccordingtotheEUElectricityDirective,whichcameinforceon19February1997,the60%ofthecommunity'selectricitymarketisopeneduptocompetitionduring1999,leadingtofundamentalchangesof
2、thecorrespondingpowerindustry.Generallyspeakingliberalizationwillleadtopricecompetition,whichgenerallyisnotinfavorofrenewablegeneration.HoweverinseveralGreekregionsthereisanexcellentwindpotential,asinmanycasestheannualmeanwindspeedat10mheightisupto11m/s.Ontheotherhand,themeanelect
3、ricityproductioncostofautonomouspowerstations(APS),usedtofulfilltheelectricitydemandsformostoftheAegeanSeaislands,isextremelyhigh,approachingthevalueof0.15€/kWh.Finally,Greecedependencyonimportedfuel(≈70%ofitsdomesticenergyconsumptionisimported),leadstoaconsiderableexchangeloss,es
4、peciallywithcountriesoutsidetheE.U..Foralltheabovementionedreasons,theGreekStateisstronglysubsidizingprivateinvestmentsintheareaofrenewableenergyapplications,eitherviathe2601/98developmentlaworviathe"EnergyOperationProgram"oftheMinistryofDevelopment.Asaresult,requestsformorethan35
5、0MWofnewwindparksexistintheMin.ofDevelopment,inordertotakeadvantageofthesubsidizationby40%ofthetotalcostoftheproject.2.THEORETICALMODEL2.1InvestmentCostThefuturevalue(after-nyearsofoperation)oftheinvestmentcostofanenergyproduction(e.g.windturbine"WT")installationisacombinationofth
6、einitialinstallationcostandthecorrespondingmaintenanceandoperationcost,bothquantitiesusedaregivenincurrentvalues.Moreprecisely,thefuturevalueofthetotalinvestmentcost"Cn"oftheinstallationreads:(1)Theinitialinvestment"ICn"costincludesthemarketpriceoftheequipment(usuallyex-works)andt
7、hecorrespondinginstallation(orbalanceoftheplant)cost.Usingamarketsurveybytheauthors,speciallyadaptedfortheGreekmarket,thespecificex-workprice"Pr"ofaWTcanbeapproachedbyasimpleexponentialexpression,asafunctionoftheratedpower"No"ofthemachine,i.e.:(2)seealsofigure[1].Consequently,thet
8、urn-onkeyprice"ICo"ofaWTplantisgi
