我国外汇冲销干预有效性研究

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1、苏州大学硕士学位论文我国外汇冲销干预有效性研究姓名：倪烨敏申请学位级别：硕士专业：金融学指导教师：乔桂明201103我国外汇冲销干预有效性研究中文提要上世纪九十年代以来，我国国际收支持续双顺差，外汇储备余额连年攀升，由此造成的外汇占款问题已经影响到我国基础货币的投放。并通过货币乘数效应，引起货币供给总量进一步扩张，限制了货币政策的操作空间，对维系币值稳定和控制通胀水平都产生了很大的压力。对此，中央银行采用了各种外汇冲销措施，来消除外汇占款大幅增加对基础货币量的影响。在这种背景下，本文对我国外汇冲销干预的有效性进行了实证研究，在外汇冲销干预的理论基础上，首先对我国外

2、汇储备和外汇占款的现状进行分析，其次研究了1994年以来各项冲销措施的运用状况，并指出目前冲销干预中存在的问题，最后通过建立央行反应函数，估算冲销系数，对我国外汇冲销干预有效性进行了实证检验，得出结论为央行的外汇冲销措施部分有效，并未能完全冲销所有的外汇占款。对此，本文提出了相关政策建议。关键词：冲销干预外汇占款基础货币央行反应函数作者：倪烨敏指导教师：乔桂明StudyontheEffectivenessofChina’SForeignExchangeSterilizedInterventionAbstractSincetheninetiesofthe20thce

3、ntury,“TwinSurpluses”(CurrentAccountSurplusandCapitalAccountSurplus)haveincreaseddrasticallyinChina’SBalanceofPayment．Foreignexchangereserveshavebeenincreasinginabigmargin．Inordertomaintainstabilityofexchangerate，thecentralbankneedstobuyforeignexchangereservesintheforeignexchangemarke

4、tatthesametimeputtingoutbasiccurrencyindomesticmarket．Moneysupplyfromforeignexchangebecomesanoutstandingissue．Thehighforeignexchangereserveswillleadtoalargenumberofforeignexchangesharesinbasecurrency,thusadirectimpactonbasecurrency．nebasecurrencywhichisinfluencedbymultipliereffectwill

5、leadtothesurgeofdomesticmoneysupplyandtheriseofprices．Tl圮rapidincreaseofforeignexchangealsoinfluencestheinitiativeofcentralbankwhichimplementsmonetarypolicy．ThecentralbankofOurcountryhastOcarryoutthesterilizedintervention．111epurposeofmonetarysterilizationistokeepthestabilityofdomesti

6、cmoneysupply,achievemonetarypolicytargetandinsuretheindependenceofChina’Smonetarypolicy．111ispaperresearcheseffectivenessofChina’Sforeignexchangesterilizedintervention．Fimt，thispaperanalyzesthecurrentsituationoftheforeignexchangereserves，fundsoutstandingforforeignexchangeandthebasecur

7、rency．Second，researchestheforeignexchangesterilizedinstrumentsusedinChinasince1994andestablishesareactionfunctionofthecentralbanktotesttheeffectivenessofsterilizedintervention．Empiricalresearchillustratesthatthesterilizationofcentralbankinchinaiseffective．ButitisnotSOefficient．Eventua

8、llyac