2015年美模a题m奖论文anoptimalstrategytoeradicateebola

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1、ProblemChosenForofficeuseonlyF1F2F3F4ForofficeuseonlyT1T2T3T42015MathematicalContestinModeling(MCM)SummarySheetTheadventoflicensedEbolavaccinesanddrugsdelightsthewholeworldwhilealsoposingadilemmaofhowtoallocatetheneededquantityamongallEbolaoutbreaksanddeliverthemwitheffectiv

2、enessandefficiency・WeestablishcomprehensiveEbolaresponsemodelsinthreemostsufferingcountries(Guinea,LiberiaandSierraLeone)includingapredictionmodelgeneratingshort-tennestimatesoftheEbolatransmissionsituations,anallocation-and-deliverymodelplanningtheneededquantityofmedicinesa

3、ndtheoptimaldeliveryroute,andacellularautomatonmodelmeasuringtheefleetofeftectiveisolationandtreatment.Besides,wealsogivepolicymakingsuggestionstopreventinternationalspreadtosomeunaffectedcountries.BasedonthespecialcharacteristicofEbola,wecreateamodifiedSEIRepidemicmodelwith

4、anaddedinterventionfactortostandfortheeffectofsomefonnsofinterventionsotherthanvaccinesanddrugs・WepredictthepotentialnumberoffutureEbolacaseswithorwithouttheuseofeffectivemedicineandtheresultalsoshowsthatifthetransmissiontrendscontinuewithouteffectiveinterventions,countriesw

5、illundergoworseandworsesituationsInthenextmodel,wefirstclassifyalloutbreaksintofivelevelsduetothedifferentEbolacasenumbers.Thenweapplyminimumspanningtreemethod,MonteCarlomethodand0-lprogrammingtoourmodeltolocateanoptimalnumberofmedicalcenterandsub-centersineachcountryaimingt

6、oeradicateEbola・Wesetonemedialcenterineachcountryandonemoresub-centerinGuinea,threemoresub-centersinLiberiaandfourmoresub-centersinSierraLeone・Themodelalsocalculatestheminimalneedednumberofvaccinesanddrugsineverymanufacturingcycle.Then,wediscusstheeffectofisolationandtreatme

7、ntbycellularautomatonmodelandfindoutthatifonlyeffectiveisolationisconducted,theretardingeffectislimited・WepresentacomprehensivestrategytoeradicateEbolabyconductingdynamicmodelsandastimepasses,wecanupdatethestatisticdatatorealitywhichaddsaccuracytoourmodelsandoptimalresults・A

8、nOptimalStrategytoEradicateEbolaIntroductionEbolavirusdisease(EVD)isasevere