2015年美模a题m奖论文an optimal strategy to eradicate ebola

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1、Team#37090Page33of34ForofficeuseonlyT1________________T2________________T3________________T4________________ ProblemChosenAForofficeuseonlyF1________________F2________________F3________________F4________________2015MathematicalContestinModeling(MCM)SummarySheetTheadvento

2、flicensedEbolavaccinesanddrugsdelightsthewholeworldwhilealsoposingadilemmaofhowtoallocatetheneededquantityamongallEbolaoutbreaksanddeliverthemwitheffectivenessandefficiency.WeestablishcomprehensiveEbolaresponsemodelsinthreemostsufferingcountries(Guinea,LiberiaandSierraLe

3、one)includingapredictionmodelgeneratingshort-termestimatesoftheEbolatransmissionsituations,anallocation-and-deliverymodelplanningtheneededquantityofmedicinesandtheoptimaldeliveryroute,andacellularautomatonmodelmeasuringtheeffectofeffectiveisolationandtreatment.Besides,we

4、alsogivepolicymakingsuggestionstopreventinternationalspreadtosomeunaffectedcountries.BasedonthespecialcharacteristicofEbola,wecreateamodifiedSEIRepidemicmodelwithanaddedinterventionfactortostandfortheeffectofsomeformsofinterventionsotherthanvaccinesanddrugs.Wepredictthep

5、otentialnumberoffutureEbolacaseswithorwithouttheuseofeffectivemedicineandtheresultalsoshowsthatifthetransmissiontrendscontinuewithouteffectiveinterventions,countrieswillundergoworseandworsesituationsInthenextmodel,wefirstclassifyalloutbreaksintofivelevelsduetothedifferen

6、tEbolacasenumbers.Thenweapplyminimumspanningtreemethod,MonteCarlomethodand0-1programmingtoourmodeltolocateanoptimalnumberofmedicalcenterandsub-centersineachcountryaimingtoeradicateEbola.Wesetonemedialcenterineachcountryandonemoresub-centerinGuinea,threemoresub-centersinL

7、iberiaandfourmoresub-centersinSierraLeone.Themodelalsocalculatestheminimalneedednumberofvaccinesanddrugsineverymanufacturingcycle.Then,wediscusstheeffectofisolationandtreatmentbycellularautomatonmodelandfindoutthatifonlyeffectiveisolationisconducted,theretardingeffectisl

8、imited.WepresentacomprehensivestrategytoeradicateEbolabyconductingdynamicmodelsandastimepasses,wecanupd