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ID:32611703
大小:3.65 MB
页数:53页
时间:2019-02-13
《城市水资源供需预测方法与应用-研究》由会员上传分享,免费在线阅读,更多相关内容在学术论文-天天文库。
1、华北电力大学硕士学位论文AbstractWi吐lthecontinuouspopulationgrowthandrapideconomicdevelopment.people’Sdemandforwaterresourcesisgettinglargerandlargerandwatershortageproblemisbecomingmoreandmoreserious.Reasonableandscientificsupplyanddemandpredictionisthebasisandpremiseofth
2、eoptimalconfigurationofurbanwaterresources.Moreover’itisaneffectivemeasuretohelpsolvethecontradictionbetweenthesupplyanddemandofurbanwaterresources,achievingthegoaloflong—termandstablewatersupplyandefficientutilizationofwaterresources.Onthebasisoftheoverseasan
3、ddomesticresearchsituationofwaterdemandpredicting,afurtherstudyonsupplyanddemandforecastingofurbanwaterresourceswasresearcheddeeply.First.aimingat也edrawbackthatthetraditionalmultivariablegreymodelcannotusethenewinformationadequatelywhenitwasappliedtopredictthe
4、urbanwaterdemand,animprovedmultivariablegreymodel(IMGM(1,n))wasputforwardbasedonthenewinformationpriorityprincipleanddynamicideaswithrecursivecompensationbygreynumbersofidenticaldimensionsinthegreysystemtheory.Second,basedonthenaturalandsocialeconomyaswellasth
5、ebasicsituationofthewaterresourcesinShenzhen,themaininfluencingfactorsofwaterdemandwereanalyzed.Onthatbasis,theliving,producingandeco—environmentalwaterdemandinplanninglevelyearswerepredicted;What’smore,consideringofthecomplexityofthetotalwaterdemand,themultip
6、lelinearregressionmodel,GM(1,1)andIMGM(I,以)wereestablisihedtopredictthetotalwaterdemand.Afterthat,thepredictionresultswerecomparedandtheresultsshowthatIMGM(I,行)hasthecharactersoffiringwell,havingstrongstabilityandhighforecastingprecision,providinganewkindoftec
7、hnicalsupportforurbanwaterdemandpredicting.Finally,thetotalavailablewatersupplyinShenzhenwaspredicted.Combinedwiththecorrespondingpredictionresultsofwatersupplyanddemand,thesupplyanddemandbalanceofwateratdifferentwatersupplyguaranteeratesWasanalyzedandthewater
8、supplyplansindifferentlevelyearswereproposed.Inaddition,somestrategiesandsuggestionsfromdemandandsupply,utilizationandprotectionaspectswereputfowardforrealizingthesustainableutiliz
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