城市水资源供需预测方法与应用-研究

《城市水资源供需预测方法与应用-研究》由会员上传分享，免费在线阅读，更多相关内容在学术论文-天天文库。

1、华北电力大学硕士学位论文AbstractWi吐lthecontinuouspopulationgrowthandrapideconomicdevelopment．people’Sdemandforwaterresourcesisgettinglargerandlargerandwatershortageproblemisbecomingmoreandmoreserious．Reasonableandscientificsupplyanddemandpredictionisthebasisandpremiseofth

2、eoptimalconfigurationofurbanwaterresources．Moreover’itisaneffectivemeasuretohelpsolvethecontradictionbetweenthesupplyanddemandofurbanwaterresources，achievingthegoaloflong—termandstablewatersupplyandefficientutilizationofwaterresources．Onthebasisoftheoverseasan

3、ddomesticresearchsituationofwaterdemandpredicting，afurtherstudyonsupplyanddemandforecastingofurbanwaterresourceswasresearcheddeeply．First．aimingat也edrawbackthatthetraditionalmultivariablegreymodelcannotusethenewinformationadequatelywhenitwasappliedtopredictthe

4、urbanwaterdemand，animprovedmultivariablegreymodel(IMGM(1，n))wasputforwardbasedonthenewinformationpriorityprincipleanddynamicideaswithrecursivecompensationbygreynumbersofidenticaldimensionsinthegreysystemtheory．Second，basedonthenaturalandsocialeconomyaswellasth

5、ebasicsituationofthewaterresourcesinShenzhen，themaininfluencingfactorsofwaterdemandwereanalyzed．Onthatbasis，theliving，producingandeco—environmentalwaterdemandinplanninglevelyearswerepredicted；What’smore，consideringofthecomplexityofthetotalwaterdemand，themultip

6、lelinearregressionmodel，GM(1，1)andIMGM(I，以)wereestablisihedtopredictthetotalwaterdemand．Afterthat，thepredictionresultswerecomparedandtheresultsshowthatIMGM(I，行)hasthecharactersoffiringwell，havingstrongstabilityandhighforecastingprecision，providinganewkindoftec

7、hnicalsupportforurbanwaterdemandpredicting．Finally,thetotalavailablewatersupplyinShenzhenwaspredicted．Combinedwiththecorrespondingpredictionresultsofwatersupplyanddemand，thesupplyanddemandbalanceofwateratdifferentwatersupplyguaranteeratesWasanalyzedandthewater

8、supplyplansindifferentlevelyearswereproposed．Inaddition，somestrategiesandsuggestionsfromdemandandsupply,utilizationandprotectionaspectswereputfowardforrealizingthesustainableutiliz