GS - Top Ten Market Themes for 2015

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1、November19,2014IssueNo:14/01GlobalViewpointEconomicsResearchTopTenMarketThemesfor2015DominicWilson(212)902-5924dominic.wilson@gs.comToday’sGlobalEconomicsWeekly,‘Keepingthefaith’,describesthemainGoldman,Sachs&Co.elementsofoureconomicforecastsfor2015andbeyond.Here,welayoutthetopmacrothemesth

2、atwethinkwilldominateassetmarketsin2015.KamakshyaTrivedi+44(20)7051-4005kamakshya.trivedi@gs.comWealsosummariseouroutlookforbroadassetclasses.GoldmanSachsInternational1.ABroadeningRecoveryFrancescoGarzarelli+44(20)7774-5078francesco.garzarelli@gs.comGoldmanSachsInternational2.DMDivergenceLi

3、vesOnJeffreyCurrie(212)357-6801jeffrey.currie@gs.com3.TheNewOilOrderGoldman,Sachs&Co.4.LowflationandtheFightAgainstItCharlesP.Himmelberg(917)343-3218charles.himmelberg@gs.comGoldman,Sachs&Co.5.TheDollarBullMarketNoahWeisberger6.Fed:Later,Steeper,Further,Calmer(212)357-6261noah.weisberger@gs

4、.comGoldman,Sachs&Co.7.China’sBumpyDownshiftContinuesRobinBrooks(212)902-8763robin.brooks@gs.comGoldman,Sachs&Co.8.EM:MoreRelief,MorePolarisationSilviaArdagna9.TheLowVolWorldanditsChallenges+44(20)7051-0584silvia.ardagna@gs.comGoldmanSachsInternational10.LivinginaLowReturnWorldDamienCourval

5、in(212)902-3307damien.courvalin@gs.comGoldman,Sachs&Co.Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.ForRegACcertificationandotherimportantdisclosures,seetheDisclosureAppendix,orgotowww.gs.com/research/hedge.html.TheGoldmanSachsGroup,Inc.GlobalInvestmen

6、tResearchNovember19,2014GlobalViewpointTopTenMarketThemesfor20151.ABroadeningRecoveryUSrecoveryremainsfirm–stilltheprimaryenginedrivingglobalgrowth.Europe/Japanhelpedbyoilandfinancialconditions.SomewhatbetterEMprofileoutsideChina.ShocksfromEuroarea,Chinastillthebigrisks.Weexpecttheshift

7、tosustainedabove-trendgrowthintheUSthattookplacein2014tobemaintainedin2015.WhiletheUSactivitypictureistoadegree‘moreofthesame’,itremainsthestrongestanchoroftheglobalrecovery.Bycontrast,thegrowthpictureinJapanandtheEuroarea–whilemuchlessimpressiveinabsolu