资源描述：
《我国主要农产品供需分析与预测》由会员上传分享，免费在线阅读，更多相关内容在工程资料-天天文库。
1、专题研究 我国主要农产品供需分析与预测DOI10.15302/J-SSCAE-2018.05.018我国主要农产品供需分析与预测刘洋，罗其友，周振亚，尤飞，高明杰，唐曲（中国农业科学院农业资源与农业区划研究所，北京100081）摘要：粮食安全始终是关系国民经济发展、社会稳定和国家自立的全局性重大战略问题。弄清食物安全保障程度、科学测算未来国家食物需求量是制定保障食物安全政策的基础性工作。2015年，我国水稻和小麦供需基本平衡，玉米供大于求，大豆严重依赖进口；棉油糖对外依存度较大，其中食用植物油自
2、给率只有36.9%，棉花87.7%，食糖74.4%；畜禽产品供需基本平衡，奶类需要品种调剂。根据中国人口数量、城镇化率、在外就餐等因素，本文估计2025年、2030年全国粮食消费需8877求量将达到6.37×10t和6.85×10t，肉类需求量将达到8.1×10t和9.5×10t。为保障我国食物安全和大宗农产品有效供给，提出应加大农业综合生产能力建设、实施节粮战略、强化农业科技创新和完善农业生产补贴制度。关键词：农产品供需；需求预测；食物安全中图分类号：F326文献标识码：AAnalysisand
3、PredictionoftheSupplyandDemandofChina’sMajorAgriculturalProductsLiuYang,LuoQiyou,ZhouZhenya,YouFei,GaoMingjie,TangQu(InstituteofAgriculturalResourcesandRegionalPlanning,ChineseAcademyofAgriculturalSciences,Beijing100081,China)Abstract:Foodsecurityhasa
4、lwaysbeenamajorstrategicissuerelatedtonationaleconomicdevelopment,socialstability,andnationalindependence.Clarifyingthedegreeoffoodsecurityandscientificallyestimatingthefuturenationalfooddemandarethebasicworkforformulatingfoodsecuritypolicies.In2015,t
5、hesupplyanddemandofriceandwheatwerebasicallybalanced,cornsupplyexceededdemand,andsoybeanwasheavilydependentonimports;cotton,oil,andsugarhadgreatdependenceonforeignproducts,ofwhichtheself-sufficiencyrateofediblevegetableoilwasonly36.9%,cotton87.7%,ands
6、ugar74.4%;supplyanddemandoflivestockproductswerebasicallybalanced,andmilkneedsvarietyregulation.AccordingtofactorssuchastheChinesepopulation8growth,theurbanizationrate,andthedining-outhabit,thispaperestimatesthatthedemandforgrainconsumptionwillreach6.
7、37×10t877in2025and6.85×10tin2030,andcorrespondinglythedemandformeatwillreach8.1×10tand9.5×10t,respectively.ToensurefoodsecurityandtheeffectivesupplyofmajoragriculturalproductsinChina,itisproposedthatChinashouldincreasetheinputofcomprehensiveagricultur
8、alproductioncapacity,implementthegrainsavingstrategy,strengthentheinnovationofagriculturalscienceandtechnology,andreformthesubsidysystemforagriculturalproduction.Keywords:foodsupplyanddemand;demandforecast;foodsecurity收稿日期：2018-08-23；修回日期：2018
