基于生态系统服务价值的土地利用结构优化的的研究

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1、AbstractBasedonthetheorystudy,acasestudywasmadeinthecityofXianyang，ShaanxiProvince．Firstly,weevaluatedtheecosystemservicevaluesonurbanscaleandanalyzedthefactorsthathasinfluencesonecosystemvaluesbythemethodsofcorrelationanalysisandpathanalysis；thenmadeaforecastonthedevelopmentofecosystemservic

2、evalueinthefuture，usingthegreyforecastingmodel，movingandaverageprediction，andexponentialsmoothingecasts；finally,basedontheconsiderationoflandresourceuse，socio-economicdevelopment，takingthemaximizedecosystemservicesvalueastheplanninggoal，webuiltagreylinearplanningmodelanddevelopedaseriesofconf

3、igurationoptimizationprogramsandstrategies．Theresultsindicated：(1)Theecosystemservicevalueisimprovingeveryear：itsvalueisimprovingfrom7．119billionRMBto7．719billionRMBfromtheyear1996to2005；theaverageincreasingrateis0．94％．Thereasonforthissortofincreaseistheforestandgardenplotswhichhavehighecosys

4、temservicevaluesindexarebooming．(2)Theecosystemservicevaluewillreachto823691．4RMBintheyearof2010basedontheforecast，higherthanthetotalvalueintheyearof2005，whichcomestoaconclusionthattheecosystemservicevaluewillcontinuetoimprove，itwillincrease111813．67RMBin15years，averageincreasingrateis1．12％．T

5、heecosystemservicefunctionisinamelioration，eco-environmentisimproving．(3)Consideringthecurrentsocio-economicconditions，wecancometothreeoptimizationprograms，theecosystemservicevalueofeachofthesethreeprogramsarehigherthan8．25billionRMB．higherthan7．72billionin2005andforecastvalue8．23billion(inth

6、eyearof2010)，whichmeansallthesethreeprogramscanimprovethecurrenteco．environment．(4)Protectingfarmland，Improvingforestlotandwaterareaorso，alltheseareneeded，whichisessentialforsustainabledevelopmentandeco—environmentconstruction．Keywords：ecosystemservicevalue；landusestructureoptimization；Xianya

7、ngCity；GrayLinearProgrammingll西北大学学位论文知识产权声明书本人完全了解西北大学关于收集、保存、使用学位论文的规定。学校有权保留并向国家有关部门或机构送交论文的复印件和电子版。本人允许论文被查阅和借阅。本人授权西北大学可以将本学位论文的全部或部分内容编入有关数据库进行检索，可以采用影印、缩印或扫描等复制手段保存和汇编本学位论文。同时授权中国科学技术信息研究所等机构将本学位论文收录到《中国学位论文全文数据库》或其它相关数据库。保密论文待解密后适用本声明