欧元区部分国家债务适度规模和违约预警分析

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1、prescriptivevalueintheMaastrichtTreaty.Inourstudy,Greecehastheworstfinancialsituation.ThenwehavetheQuantitativeanalysisbytheempiricalanalysis.WehaveaconclusionthatthedebtinGreece,PortugalandIrelandisunsustainable,whileItalyandSpain'sdebtisrelativelygood.Wethinktheyaresustainabl

2、e.Thenextpartofthearticleisariskearlywarninganalysis.First,wedeterminetheeffectsofthevariousearlywarningindicatorsoftheriskofthenationaldebt.Thentakingthedebtsustainabilityintotheanalysisindicators.Byfactoranalysiswefindthatthemacroeconomicindicatorsandthedebtburdenindicatorsar

3、ethemostimportantfactorinfluencingtheriskofdebt.Thesustainabilityofgovernmentdebthasbecomeanimportantfactor.ThroughtheCompositescorefactorcurvewecanseethatafter2007,thedebtriskofthefivecountriesisrisingfaster.Thisismeaningtheyhavelargerrisk.Butfrom2010,theperformanceofeachcount

4、ryisdifferent.Inaddition,inthecompositescorefactoroffivecountriesin2013whichispredictedbytheARIMAmodel,wecanfindthatGreekandIrishhaveatendtoincreasetherisk,Spainstillhavingahighrisk,ItalyandPortugal'sdebtriskhavinggraduallystabletrend.Finally,wecanhavetherevelationoftheEuropean

5、debtcrisisonChina'sdebtmanagement.Inrecentyears,debtpolicyisfrequentlyusedtocontrolthemacro-economy.Thesizeofthedebtisrapidlyexpanding.Theriskofdebtisrapidlyincreasing.Debtmanagementisgraduallymoredifficulty.Insomecountriesintheeurozone,weanalyzethedebtsituationandgaintherevela

6、tiontocontroloursizeofthedebtandcompletetheearly-warningsystem.Inaddition,itisalsoproposedrelevantpolicyrecommendationsinmanagingourlocalgovernmentdebt.Keywords:Debtsustainability;Earlywarning;FactorAnalysis;ARIMAmodelIV目录摘要..................................................IAbs

7、tract...............................................III0绪论.................................................10.1研究背景和意义................................................10.2研究目标和方法................................................40.3文章结构安排...........................................

8、.......40.4本文创新点和难点...................................