关于灰色博弈的群体突发事件应急策略分析

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1、maIlagerandCriSISeventisanalyzed．Dynamiccharacteristicofsocialconflictisreasonablelvrefleetedbythemodel，andthebenefitmaximizationandsocietyprofitbalanceb咖eenbothpartiesisrealizedbyanalyzingthecaseof“die-hardhousehold”．Then，co玎espondingemergencystrategiesaresuggestedatthepositionofgov

2、emment．ConsideringgreyinformationandboundedrationalityofplayerS，non．cooperativeeVolutionmodel，aboundedrationalitygreymodel，isalsoproposed．Agreyprofitand10ss⋯matrixbetweencrisiseventandcrisismanagerisdesigned．Havingdiscussedtlleevolutionanr√equilibriumandstabilityoftwotypesofthegamepl

3、ayers，theevolutiona巧tendencyis’describedbyevolutionstablestrategy．CountermeasuresandsuggestiontoavoidtllemaSsunexpectedincidentconvertingtosocialcrisisisgiven，onwhichthathowtolimit锄drestrictthebenefitsofbothconflictsidesbydifferentstrategiesisthekeytod既eminetllesuitablegamestrategies

4、adopted．Massunexpectedincidentisstudieddeeplyeitherontheoryorinapplication．Atfirst．havingconstructedtheprocessevolutionmodel，then，analyzingapracticalcase谢tlltllemodel,fromsuchprocedurethemodelvalidityisverified．Aseriesofemergencystrategiestllenwhichmeetthegeneraltoholdaharmonioussoci

5、etyaredesignedforgovemmentinsocialmanagement．Keywords：MaSsunexpectedincident；Emergencymanagement：Greysystem；Negotiation：Boundedrationality’IV●目录摘要⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯1ABSTRACT⋯⋯⋯．⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯．⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯．⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯．⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯．⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯．⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯III目录⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯．V第一章引

6、言⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯．1第一节课题来源⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯一1第二节研究背景⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯。1一群体性突发事件概述⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯．．3二研究的意义⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯．．4第三节研究路径和方法⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯．．5一研究内容⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯．．5二研究方法⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯

7、⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯6三技术路线⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯7第二章文献综述⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯8第一节群体性突发事件应急管理⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯．8第二节群体性突发事件应急研究现状⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯．．10一理论性研究现状⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯．11二应用性研究现状⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯13第三节群体性突发事件应急研究存在的问题⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯．．14一群体性突发事件研究现状评价⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯

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