货币政策对我国股市市场风险影响的实证分析

货币政策对我国股市市场风险影响的实证分析

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页数:45页

时间:2019-01-31

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1、AbstractThemonetarypolicyisoneoftheeffectivewaystomaintainfinancialmarketstabilityandregulatethenationaleconomyofeachcountry.Asisknowntoall,China'sstockmarketisanemergingandtransitionalmarketandnotmature,showingunprecedentedvolatility.AnimportantreasonisthatChina'sstockmarketissensit

2、ivetopolicyinterventions.Everyadjustmentofcentralbank'smonetarypolicy,eventheexpectationsofinvestorsonthepolicydirection,maycauseabnormalpricefluctuations.ManyscholarsconsiderthatChina'sstockmarketisnotabarometeroftheeconomy,butisabarometerofthepolicy.Atthesametime,asthestockmarketde

3、velops,ithasincreasinglybecomeanimportantinvestmentandfinancingchannel,andtheproportionofstocksintheassetstructureofresidentsisalsoincreasing.Inrecentyears,thecentralbank'smonetarypolicyadjustmentisbecomingmoreandmorefrequent,andinvestorsattachmoreimportanceonmonetarypolicyfactorsint

4、heinvestmentdecision-making.Butoverall,themajorityinvestorsstilllackaclearunderstandingoftherisklevelofthestockmarket,andlackrationalanalysisoftheeffectsofeconomicpolicy.Therefore,itisnecessarytoadoptascientificandsimplestockmarketriskmeasurementmethods,sothatitcaneasilyhelptheinvest

5、orsmeasuretheeffectofthemonetarypolicyanditsadjustmenttoChina'sstockmarketriskintheday-to-dayinvestment.VaR(Value-at-Risk)isamethodofmeasuretheexpectedmaximumloss,inanormalmarketenvironmentandgivenacertaintimeintervalandconfidencelevel.Thismethodhasreceivedthedomesticandforeigninvest

6、mentbanksandsecuritycompany’sextensiveattentionandapplication.Basedonthetheoreticalresearch,thispaperstudiedtheimpactofmonetarypolicyonthestockmarketthroughtheintroductionofthemonetarypolicytoolsandtheanalysisofconductionprocessofmonetarypolicyonthestockmarket.Intheempiricalanalysisa

7、spect,theauthorselectedCSI300Indexasconsiderationsindicators,usingdailydatafromJanuary2010toDecember2012,throughthesignificancetestofinterestratesanddepositreserverateadjustmentonabnormalreturn,andobservedtheVaRmodel’strendchangesiibeforeandaftertheeventthatbasedont-GARCHmodel,adopte

8、deventstudym

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