人民币实际有效汇率测算及其对中美贸易影响实证的分析

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1、AbstractExchangerateisoneofthemostimportantcomprehensiveindicesinaContrary’Seconomy．Itplaysanirreplaceableroleintheeffectivefunctioningofwholeeconomicactivity．MeasurementofRMBrealexchangeratehasalwaysbeenthecoreconceptandbasisofempiricalstudyinRMBexchangerate．Thethesisexplainedthebackgroundinfor

2、mationandmeaningstudiedatfirst，andthensummarizedmeasuremethodsandresultsofdomesticandforeignscholars，anddescribedtheimpactoftherealeffectiveexchangerateonSino-USresearch，andputforwardthecontentsandmethodsofthisresearch．Secondly，onthebasisofsummarizingtheformerstudyresults，decidedtoadoptabilatera

3、ltrademodelandarithmeticweightedaveragemethod，selected14countriesandregions(theUnitedStates，Japan,HongKong，Korea,Taiwan,Germany，Australia，Malaysia，Brazil，India，Singapore，Netherlands，Russia，Thailand)asthemajortradingpartnerstomeasuretheRMBeffectiveexchangerate．，becausetheykeptclosetoChina．Basedon

4、thismeasurementresults，thispaperempiricalanalyzedtheimpactonSino-U．Strade．Theresultsasfollowed：RMBrealeffectiveexchangeratehadliRleimpactonSino—U．Strade，theUnitedStatesgovernmentadvocatingtheoryofappreciationoftheRMB，attempttoreducethetradesurplusbetweenChinaandtheUnitedStatesforthereasonisquite

5、unfounded．Finally，thispaperanalyzedthereasonsofsurplusofSino—U．Strade，andputforwardfourSuggestionsforreaSfmSKeywords：RMBREER；Sino—U．Strade；impact，Tradesurplus11目录第一章绪论⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯11．1研究背景及意义⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯11．1．1研究背景⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯11．1．2研究意义⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯11

6、．2文献综述⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯21．2．1实际有效汇率测算的文献综述⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯21．2．2人民币汇率对中美贸易影响的文献综述⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯61．3研究内容与研究方法⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯61．3．1研究内容．．⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯91．3．2研究方法⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯一91．4主要创新点⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯．1o第二章测算⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯1

7、12．1相关概念的界定⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯112．1．1名义汇率、实际汇率和有效汇率⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯112．1．2实际有效汇率⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯122．2人民币实际有效汇率的测算——以1995-2011年为例⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯122．2．1贸易伙伴的选取⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯122．2．2实际有效汇率计算的公式选择⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯．142．2