我国公司治理风险预警研究——以制造行业为例

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2、ategovemallcerisk．Fulld锄entally，corporategoVemaIlcedoesnotreachmedesignatedposition．Butmeco巾orategovemaJlceisnotsouIldorgoVemallce黼lurecausedmecorporategovemancerisk，butalsoa疵ctedmesustaillabledeVelopmentofmecompanyaIldnlecompallyIspe—b咖anceandValuerealization．M跚曲lct：嘶ngindust呵aSmepillar

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4、血eⅡleor)，．ARe刑ards，Icomposeapredictingmodelofco印orategoVemallcerisk．Thet11ird，1willuSemeempirica】a11alysistoide而匆ourcouIl臼．ymallufac删ngiIldus仃ycoporategovemaIlceex．anterisk，aJldtllenaccordingtot11econclusionoft11eempiricalanalysisputforwardidentification，controloraVoidtlleriskoft11epolic

5、ysuggestions．nelast，it，s诹11cons啪mateourco衄仃ymaJl施ctuI证gco印orategoVemance，promotetllesustainablehealmydeVelopment．ThemaLini衄ovationpointliesi11notoIllyfromtlleaIl酉eofcorporategovemancestmcture，blltalso盘omillegal仃endflnancialan91etoconsideriImuencecompanyriSkmaIlagememriskfactors，a11dconst

6、mctst11eco印orategoVemanceriskmeasure；Using也efh∞泔aIlalysistoselecteachindex，吼datmes锄etime，uSing2009to2011dataLogiSticregressionmodelwi也tlleestablishmentofearlywarIlingmodelma玉resmeempiricalaIlalysismoreaccuratea11drelia_ble．Keywords：MallufactuI_ingi11dus臼y；Co印orategoVemaIlcerisk；对skwanlin

7、g；FactoraIlalysis；LogisticregressionmodIII第一章绪论1．1选题的背景及意义1．1．1选题的背景近几十年来，国内外相继出现了一系列重大会计舞弊丑闻，例如银广夏及深圳原野、安然及世通，加上由美国次贷危机引致全球的金融危机，引起了社会各界的深思，并纷纷探究其根源所在。我们认为，从根本上看这无不与公司治理风险控制不到位有关，这也让人们认识到，一个有价值的企业仅仅有良好的经营业绩还不够，还需要合理健全的公司治理机制。目前，我国市场经济处于发展的磨合期，公司治理机制“失灵"时常发生，对公司治理风险的事前预警更