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1、华中科技大学硕士学位论文ABSTRACTAsenvironmentalpollutionandenergyshortagesgrowing,asoneofcleanenergy,thedevelopmentofsmallhydropowerwassupportedbynationalandlocalpolicies,thedevelopmentofsmallhydropowerhassolvedthepowershortagesituationinsomeareasandpromotedthedevelopmentofruraleco
2、nomyandtheelectrificationofreform.However,thedevelopmentofsmallhydropowerhasalsobroughtsomeproblems.Inthelargenumberofsmallhydropowerstation,inadditiontoaverysmallparthasacertainabilitytoregulate,themajorityofsmallhydropowerplantsareRun-of-station,thoseplantshavepoorabi
3、litytoregulate,andtheirgenerationchangesinawiderangewiththedifferenceofseasonsandrainfall.Inordertopursuetheirowneconomicbenefit,somenon-centrallydispatchedsmallhydropowerstationsdonotperformaccordingtothegenerationplanmadebythegrid.Theyrushedtransferringelectricitytoth
4、egridinthewetperiodwhilestoptheirgeneratorsduringthedryseasons,suchbehaviormakestheelectricitytheysenttothegridchangesinalargeamplitude.Asthecapacityofsmallhydropowerplantsconnectedtothegridgrowingfast,it’sadverseeffectstogridsecurityandstability,gridschedulingetc.ismor
5、esignificant.Intheabsenceofgoodregulatorymeasuresonthephenomenonofsmallhydropowergenerationdisorderlysituation,toensurethesafeandstableoperationofthepowergridandreasonablearrangementstofacilitatedispatcherseachCentrallydispatchedpowergenerationplan,themethodsofloadforec
6、astingcanbeusedtogetthechangeofelectricitysenttothegrid,tothisend,inthispaper,agroupofsmallhydropowerintheregionareregardasawholeasaresearchobject,tostudyItsdailyoutputlaw.Thegenerationofsmallhydropowerstationgrouphasnoregularityinlong-term,Buttheshorttermistofollowthel
7、aw,soit’spossibletomakeashort-termprediction.ThechangeofmaxgenerationofdailyLoadcurvehaveaveryclearcorrelationtorainfallaccordingtotheanalysisoffeaturesofgenerationinthearea.Andaccordingtothechangesinloadinertiaandtimecontinuity,relationalmodelcanbecreatedbetweentherain
8、fallandthemaximumload.Topredictthedailymaximumloadbyexponentialsmoothingmethodandcorrecttheforecastbasevaluecr
