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1、AsiaPan-AsiaTelecommunications2July2010AsianTelecomsSectorHalf-timereviewinachallengingyearWilliamBrattonResearchAnalyst(+852)22036186william.bratton@db.com1H10trendsgenerallysupportourregionalsectorviewTheAsiantelcosectorhashadarelativelygood1H10withst
2、rongperformancesinMalaysia,ChinaandThailandwhiletheIndian,PhilippineandIndonesiantelcosectorshaveperformedtheworst.Weexpectthekey1H10themes(smartphones,competitionandNBNs)topersistinto2H10andmaintainourregionalpreferences.Withinthesectorwerecommendover-
3、weightingChina,Indonesia,TaiwanandThailandandunder-weightingIndia,Korea,MalaysiaandthePhilippines.OurpreferredtelcosremainAIS,CHT,LGT,STH,TLKMandUnicom.Arelativelygood2010firsthalffortheAsiantelcosectorTheMSCIAsiaex-JPTelecomServicesIndex(MXASJTC)isup3%
4、overthelastsixmonthsandhasout-performedtheMSCIAsiaex-JPIndex(MXASJ)byapprox8%.Nearlytwo-thirdsofDBcoveredtelcosachievedabsolutepricegainsandmostDBcoveredtelcosout-performedtheirlocalbenchmarkssinceend-2009.Specifically,thebest1H10performingsectorsacross
5、theregionintermsoftotalmarketcapchangeswereMalaysia(+9%)andChina(+8%)whiletheworstwereIndia(-12%),thePhilippines(-7%)andIndonesia(-7%).ThebestperformingtelcowasXLAxiatawhilebothAxiataandPCCWachieved>20%pricegainsoverthelastsixmonths.Incontrast,during1H1
6、0TCNZ’spricefell24%(closeto20yrlows),Tataisdown22%,Bhartilost20%andTelkomdeclined19%(seeinsidefor1H10reviewsforspecificstocks).Key1H10themeslikelytopersistinto2H101H10sectorthemesweregenerallydominatedbysmartphonesandmobiledata(inKorea,SingaporeandTaiwa
7、n),competitiontrends(especiallyinIndiaandthePhilippines)andNationalBroadbandNetworkdevelopments(inAustralia,Malaysia,NewZealandandSingapore).Weexpectthesesameissuestocontinuetodominateinto2H10.However,theactualimpactofNBNsonmarketcompetitionandstructure
8、sislikelytobecomeclearer(webelieveconcernsthatNBNwillresultinlong-termstructuralchangesaremisplaced)whilewealsoexpectagreaterunderstandingin2H10oftheactualeconomicsofmobiledata(wethinkmobiledatagrowthwillnotbeasbeneficialfortelco
