中国医药行业2019年展望：改革、改革和改革！

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1、ChinaHealthcareSector2019OutlookChinaHealthcareSector2019ChinaHealthcareOutlook:Reforms,Reforms&MoreReforms!7January,2019Afterthecorrectionin2H2018,thehealthcaresectorvaluationhasreachedathree-yearlowasaresultofaseriesofpoliciescallingforASPcutsandconsolidation.Givenmorepolicy

2、uncertaintiesaheadin2019,westronglyrecommendinvestorspickstocksfromabottom-upperspectiveandembraceearningsvisibility.OurtoppicksareShanghaiPharm[2607.HK;BUY];CTCM[570.HK;BUY]andSinoPharm[1099.HK;BUY].Healthcaresectorcorrectionsince2H2018duetopolicyrisks.In1H2018thehealthcaresec

3、torwassignificantlyre-ratedfollowingstrongmomentumin2017.ThesectorbegantocorrectinJune.Apartfrommacrofactors,suchasthetradewarandRMBdepreciation,majorde-ratingfactorsinthesectorincluded1)theGroupPurchasingOrganization’s(GPO)progressinexpandingnationwideandtomoredrugsaccelerated

4、andtheASPcutwasmuchmoreseverethanexpected;2)drugterminalgrowthpressurefrommedicalinsurancecostcontrol;and3)arapidincreaseinthesellingexpensesofdrugcompanies.Medicalreformstormtocontinuein2019.Lookingaheadto2019,weexpectmedicalreformstocontinuetodeepen,mainlyincludingareviewofup

5、streamdrugsandapprovalreforms,generics’consistencyevaluation,theGPO,hierarchydiagnosisandtreatment,andmedicalinsurancepaymentreforms.Throughthesereforms,theauthorities’keygoalsareto1)introduceclinicallyindispensabledrugstothemarketassoonaspossibletobenefitpatients;2)encouragedo

6、mesticmanufacturerstoresearchanddevelopinnovativedrugs;3)callforgenericsconsolidationandASPcuts(e.g.theGPO)andimprovegenericsquality(e.g.genericsconsistencyevaluation);4)cutdrugpricestoamoreaffordablelevel(e.g.tenderingpricecuts);5)alleviatethenationalmedicalinsurancereimbursem

7、entfundburdenbyoptimizinginsurancecoverageanditspaymentstructure;and6)makegooduseoflimitedmedicalresources(e.g.hierarchydiagnosisandtreatment).HarryHe—Analyst(852)3698-6320harryhe@chinastock.com.hkWongChiMan,CFA—HeadofResearch(852)3698-6317cmwong@chinastock.com.hkLizLi—Analyst(

8、852)3698-6297lizli@chinastock.com.hkEarningsvisibility