[博弈论书籍].game.theory.evolving∶a.problem-centered.introduction.to.modeling.strategic.interaction,herbert gintis,2009,2nd ed,princeton university press

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1、GameTheoryEvolving,SecondEditionThispageintentionallyleftblankGameTheoryEvolving,SecondEditionAProblem-CenteredIntroductiontoModelingStrategicInteractionHerbertGintisPrincetonUniversityPressPrincetonandOxfordCopyright!c2009byPrincetonUniversityPressPublishedbyPrincetonUniversity

2、Press,41WilliamStreet,Princeton,NewJersey08540IntheUnitedKingdom:PrincetonUniversityPress,6OxfordStreet,Woodstock,OxfordshireOX201TWAllRightsReservedLibraryofCongressCataloging-in-PublicationDataGintis,Herbert.Gametheoryevolving:aproblem-centeredintroductiontomodelingstrategicin

3、teraction/HerbertGintis.-2nded.p.cm.Includesbibliographicalreferencesandindex.ISBN978-0-691-14050-6(hardcover:alk.paper)-ISBN978-0-691-14051-3(pbk.:alk.paper)1.Gametheory.2.Economics,Mathematical.I.Title.HB144.G562008330.01’5193-dc222008036523BritishLibraryCataloging-in-Publicat

4、ionDataisavailableThepublisherwouldliketoacknowledgetheauthorofthisvolumeforprovidingthecamera-readycopyfromwhichthisbookwasprintedThisbookwascomposedinTimesandMathtimebytheauthorPrintedonacid-freepaper.press.princeton.eduPrintedintheUnitedStatesofAmerica10987654321ToMarciandDan

5、Riverrun,pastEveandAdam’s,fromswerveofshoretobendofbay,bringsusbyaCommodiusvicusofrecircu-lationbackJamesJoyceThispageintentionallyleftblankContentsPrefacexv1ProbabilityTheory11.1BasicSetTheoryandMathematicalNotation11.2ProbabilitySpaces21.3DeMorgan’sLaws31.4Interocitors31.5TheD

6、irectEvaluationofProbabilities31.6ProbabilityasFrequency41.7Craps51.8AMarksmanContest51.9Sampling51.10AcesUp61.11Permutations61.12CombinationsandSampling71.13MechanicalDefects71.14MassDefection71.15HouseRules71.16TheAdditionRuleforProbabilities81.17AGuessingGame81.18NorthIsland,

7、SouthIsland81.19ConditionalProbability91.20Bayes’Rule91.21ExtrasensoryPerception101.22LesCinqTiroirs101.23DrugTesting101.24ColorBlindness111.25Urns111.26TheMontyHallGame111.27TheLogicofMurderandAbuse111.28ThePrincipleofInsufficientReason121.29TheGreensandtheBlacks121.30TheBrainan

8、dKidneyProblem121.31TheValueofEyewitnessTestimo